The implementation of the quantitative indicators task of the 2018 government work report (hereinafter referred to as the report) released by the Chinese Government Network on the 1st day shows that 36 quantitative indicators tasks have been fully implemented, and many of them have been overfulfilled.
Chinas economy has made steady progress in 2018. Stability reflects that all indicators have met the requirements of the governments work objectives, while progress reflects in such aspects as poverty alleviation, ensuring employment and so on, with remarkable results. Yang Chang, a macro analyst at China-Thailand Securities, told First Financial and Economic Journalist after the release of the quantitative indicator report card.
The government work report in 2019 will be published soon. How to observe the quality of Chinas economic growth from the implementation of quantitative indicators in 2018 is of great significance to the sustained and healthy development of the national economy.
Xu Guangrui, Executive Director of Guoxin Future Science and Technology Research Institute, told the First Financial and Economic Journalist that since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, the country has continuously introduced major reform measures, taking the five new development concepts and high-quality development requirements as the leadership, and the supply-side structural reform as the main line, to shift the focus of economic development from the scale-speed type to the quality-benefit type. Observing the quality of economic development can not only pursue the total scale index, but also pay attention to the relative index. Instead, we should judge the coordinated development level of the two, deeply understand and grasp the development trend of the index, and measure the gold content of development from the change of the index.
The underlying reason for this change is to respect the law of economic development, that is, after more than 40 years of reform and opening-up, China has become the largest developing country in the world. According to the fixed-price GDP, the increment of 1 percentage point of GDP growth in 2018 is equivalent to the increment of 4.8 percentage points in 2000. The increase of economic aggregate means that the total amount of wealth has been significantly increased. The next step is to pay more attention to the quality and efficiency of economic development. It can not be ignored that China is a large country with a population of 1.395 billion. A certain rate of growth is not only the basis for ensuring employment and social stability, but also the basis for seeking optimization in all kinds of work. Xu Guangrui said.
Steady Economic Growth
In 2018, Chinas GDP exceeded the 90 trillion mark for the first time. This is a new step after breaking through 70 trillion yuan in 2016 and 80 trillion yuan in 2017. In terms of growth rate, GDP is expected to grow by about 6.5% and 6.6% in real terms, which is in line with the annual target.
Meanwhile, in 2018, Chinas energy consumption per unit GDP fell by 3.1% over the previous year, fulfilling the expected target of more than 3% in last years government work report; consumer prices rose by 2.1% over the previous year, operating within a reasonable range.
Xu Guangrui believes that under the severe international environment and the arduous and arduous task of reform, development and stability, Chinas GDP has still achieved a growth rate of 6.6%, while the per capita GDP has reached 646,000 yuan, an increase of 6.1%; the total labor productivity has reached 107,300 yuan per person, an increase of 6.6%. It can be seen that Chinas economy has achieved a coordinated development of speed and efficiency, and its achievements are hard to come by.
At the same time, the report shows that in 2018, Chinas fixed investment in railways will reach 802.8 billion yuan, exceeding the expected target of 732 billion yuan; the whole country will complete the expected target of highway and waterway investment of 2297.37 billion yuan, exceeding 18 trillion yuan; the central budget will allocate 537.6 billion yuan for investment; the scale of investment in water projects will reach 1 trillion yuan; the shanty towns will be transformed into 5.8 million units; and the new farmers will be rebuilt. The goal of 200,000 kilometers of village roads has also been completed on schedule.
In terms of Finance and taxation, the deficit rate is 2.6%, the deficit is 2.38 trillion yuan, the national fiscal expenditure is 21 trillion yuan, the central governments general transfer payments to local governments are increased by 10.9% and the arrangement of local special bonds is 1.35 trillion yuan are all achieved on schedule.
Effectively safeguard peoples livelihood
Employment is the biggest livelihood of the people. Stable employment, which ranks first in the Six Steady category, smoothly fulfilled the goals set at the beginning of last year, laying a solid foundation for ensuring stable economic and social growth.
The report shows that in 2018, 13.61 million new jobs were created in Chinas cities and towns. The unemployment rate in urban surveys remained between 4.8% and 5.1% in every month of the year. The registered unemployment rate in cities and towns in China was 3.80%, which was significantly better than the expected targets of 11 million new jobs, 5.5% unemployment rate in urban surveys and 4.5% unemployment rate in urban surveys.
Despite the obvious changes in the internal and external environment of economic operation, Chinas employment situation is generally stable, which is closely related to the continuous optimization of Chinas economic structure. In 2018, the tertiary industry maintained steady growth, contributing 59.7% to GDP growth.
According to Xu Guangrui, the purpose of industrial upgrading and structural optimization is to realize the transformation from a big manufacturing country to a strong manufacturing country. At the same time, the service industry will achieve internal optimization and upgrading, and the industries with high added value will continue to grow and grow. The main observation indicators are the difference between the growth rate of strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing industry and that of industries above scale, and the proportion of high-tech manufacturing industry to industrial added value above scale. In 2018, the growth rates of strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing industry in China reached 8.9% and 11.7% respectively, exceeding 2.7% and 5.5% respectively. The proportion of high-tech manufacturing industry in industries above scale reached 13.9%, which was 1.2% higher than the previous year, and the development gold content of manufacturing industry was further increased. The value added of information transmission, software and information technology services in the service industry increased by 30.7%, and the quality of development increased significantly.
Speed-up and fee-reduction are widely expected gifts for peoples livelihood. In 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology actively promoted the network speed-up and fee-reduction, cancelled the mobile phone domestic traffic roaming fee, and telecommunications enterprises continued to reduce mobile traffic, home broadband and small and medium-sized enterprise dedicated broadband fees, exceeding the target task of network speed-up and fee-reduction proposed in the government work report.
The report shows that at the end of 2018, the average cost of mobile network traffic nationwide dropped by 63% compared with the end of last year, substantially exceeding the expected target of at least 30% reduction.
In addition, commitments in the field of peoples livelihood have also been fulfilled, such as 13 million people re-entering the city and settling down in 2018, the per capita financial subsidy standard of basic medical insurance for residents will be increased by another 40 yuan, half of which will be used for major illness insurance.
In terms of poverty alleviation, China reduced 13.86 million people living in poverty in rural areas in 2018, exceeding the expected target; 2.8 million people were relocated to poverty alleviation areas to achieve the expected target.
Xu Guangrui told the First Financial and Economic Journalist that the report of the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party officially put forward the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020, and is now in the decisive stage of achieving this goal. The CPC Central Committee has continuously launched various major initiatives to improve peoples livelihood, whose effects can be measured from the perspectives of price, income, employment and poverty alleviation. The excellent performance of these livelihood indicators lays a solid foundation for building a well-off society in an all-round way. The fundamental reason is that the Party Central Committee has put livelihood work into practice.
Deepening Supply-side Reform
2018 is the year of continuous deepening of supply-side reform. In terms of capacity removal, China reduced its steel production capacity by more than 35 million tons in 2018. By the end of last year, the upper limit of 140 million to 150 million tons of iron and steel production capacity stipulated in the 13th Five-Year Plan had been fulfilled ahead of schedule.
Thanks to the continuous deepening of supply-side reform, the iron and steel industry will run smoothly in 2018 with good benefits, the industrial structure will be optimized and upgraded, the utilization rate of production capacity will be reasonable, the quality of products and the supply capacity of high-end products will be significantly improved, and the business efficiency and market expectations will be obviously better.
In the coal sector, in 2018, China withdrew from backward coal production capacity of 270 million tons and eliminated more than 8 million kilowatts of coal-fired power generating units below 300,000 kilowatts, all of which exceeded or fulfilled their tasks ahead of schedule. So far, the main objective and task of 13th Five-Year Plan coal production capacity removal have basically been accomplished. The development of coal industry has changed from total capacity removal to systematic and structural capacity removal.
In terms of cost reduction, China reduced taxes and fees for enterprises and individuals by 1.3 trillion yuan last year, achieving the goal of reducing taxes for enterprises and individuals by more than 800 billion yuan and reducing non-tax burden by more than 300 billion yuan for market participants. In addition, the target of average reduction of 10% in the price of electricity for general industry and commerce has also been achieved.
In terms of improving business environment, the goals of half reduction of business start-up time, 8.5 working days, more than half reduction of project approval time, 120 working days and one third reduction of overall customs clearance time have been successfully achieved.
Source of this article: Shi Jianle_NBJ11331, Responsible Editor of the First Finance and Economics Network