The Iranian nuclear agreement is unlikely to have a fundamental impact on Israeli Iran relations.

category:Military
 The Iranian nuclear agreement is unlikely to have a fundamental impact on Israeli Iran relations.


Recently, the Middle East wave has been resurgence and hot spots have emerged. The intensification of the conflict between Israel and Iran is particularly attracting attention. Israel first carried out missile attacks on several military facilities in Syria, killing several Iran people, and then throwing more than one hundred thousand evidence that Iran was still trying to transfer nuclear facilities and secretly develop nuclear weapons after the signing of the nuclear agreement. The defense minister announces the state of war to other countries under extreme state. At the same time, some Israeli armored forces began to assemble in the north, posing a direct confrontation between Syria and Iran. NBC NBC quoted some officials as saying that Israel seems ready to launch a military attack on Iran and is seeking support from the United States. In the face of aggressive Israeli posture, Iran is not weak, Iran military leader Abdorat Moussaoui recently said that even if State of Israel has been supported by the United States, it will be disappearing within 25 years. Salam, the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, warned Israel that Israel is nowhere to escape within the range of our weapons. The contradiction between Israel and Iran has been long-standing, and there has been a lot of hard words from each other, but few people believe that there will be direct military conflict between the two countries. Now, however, there are more and more people who have this view. When I visited Israel recently, I had been able to feel worried about the possible retaliation of Iran, and some even feared that the missiles in Iran would fall into Israels territory at any time. Most recent international opinion also tends to think that the possibility of conflict between Israel and Iran is increasing. I believe that many peoples expectations are largely influenced by the recent developments in the Middle East, especially the changes in the US Middle East Policy under the leadership of the United States. On the one hand, Trump clearly demonstrated the tendency of pro - Israel and hostile to Iran since he came to power, and so far what he had done in the Middle East has also been clearly characterized by the strengthening of the relationship with Irans rival Saudi Arabia, and the possibility of withdrawal from a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue; and Xuan cloth moved the American Embassy in Israel to the Lord. Lu Sha Leng launched a new round of missile attacks against the government of Iran supported by Syria. On the other hand, Mohammed, who has been in charge of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has been getting tougher on Iran since he is in charge. It will be considered not only to clean up the Gulf Cooperation Council by Irans Qatar, but also to cooperate with Israel to deal with Iran. In addition, the response of the Arabia world is surprisingly calm for the United States to move its embassy to Jerusalem. It is therefore believed that these elements constitute the best external environment for Israel in recent years, and are also considered to be the main reason for Israel to strengthen its attitude towards Iran. But for Israel, even in the current situation, the situation still has its concerns. Iran and Lebanese Hizbullahs lasting military presence in Syria is Israels most concern, and it is becoming a reality; Israel is certainly happy to see Trump pro, but it is more worried about Trumps unpredictable personality and variable policies. In Israels view, Trumps behavior is highly arbitrary. During the visit, I heard the complaints from the Israeli scholars. When Trump launched a missile attack on Syria, he did not have the following, but he pushed the follow-up Israel to the front desk. Israels fear of retaliation in Iran was the result. In addition, there are few countries in the international community to support Trumps withdrawal from the Iraq nuclear agreement, and even the closest Western allies such as de France have urged Trump to change his ideas. This allows Israel to worry about Trumps temporary change, and more worried that Trump, after messing up the nuclear agreement, makes Israel face it directly with Iraq. Lang antagonism. Recently, many analysts believe that Israel has shown strong strength in Iran recently, in order to match Trumps abandonment of the Iranian nuclear agreement. Israels recent focus on Iran is also intended to divert the possible negative impact of the US move to Israel. But I dont think so, Israel makes the so-called Iran nuclear program material, even Congress through the authorization of the war in Iran, and so on more is to Trump before the final decision to make the pressure to prevent Trump from the Iran nuclear agreement on the issue of nuclear agreement. It is clear that Israel is also preparing for a step back. Israel knows very well that if the United States wants to fix Iran, it does not need Israels cooperation. From the past US Middle East policy, although the whole side favors Israel, the United States does not want Israel to intervene in dealing with relations with other Middle East countries. Sometimes, in order to balance relations with other countries, the United States will even put pressure on Israel. According to the recent disclosure by the Jerusalem post of Israel, Trump has called on Israel to withdraw four Israeli settlements in East Jerusalem to balance the impact of American relocation. If the news is confirmed, it will undoubtedly give Israel a cold sweat. Therefore, in May, the United States will not lose control of the situation until the final decision of the Iran agreement is reached and the relocation of the library is carried out. As a matter of fact, Netanyahu is showing his strength to Iran, but also left a retreat for himself. He said he had no intention of going to war with Iran. Iran is facing a tough and relatively low-key Israeli position. So far, Iran does not think Israel has any intention of using force against it. In the eyes of Iran, Israels attack on Irans goal in Syria can not change the relationship between Syria and Iran. At present, Iran is more concerned about the USs final declaration of the Iran nuclear agreement. Although Iran has made the worst preparations, it is also making positive efforts, including close communication with other major powers outside the United States. The relocation of the United States and the final position on the decision of the Iran agreement are two major points of view that may affect the situation in the Middle East in May, but no matter what the outcome is, they will not have a fundamental impact on the relations between Israel and Iran. (Li Weijian, vice president of the Middle East Society of China, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Shanghai Institute for foreign affairs of the Institute of foreign affairs of the Shanghai Institute of Foreign Affairs) Iran is facing a tough and relatively low-key Israeli position. So far, Iran does not think Israel has any intention of using force against it. In the eyes of Iran, Israels attack on Irans goal in Syria can not change the relationship between Syria and Iran. At present, Iran is more concerned about the USs final declaration of the Iran nuclear agreement. Although Iran has made the worst preparations, it is also making positive efforts, including close communication with other major powers outside the United States. The relocation of the United States and the final position on the decision of the Iran agreement are two major points of view that may affect the situation in the Middle East in May, but no matter what the outcome is, they will not have a fundamental impact on the relations between Israel and Iran. (Li Weijian, vice president of China middle east society, research fellow of Institute of foreign policy, Shanghai Institute of international studies, overseas columnist)