Changan sword: why is the outcome of Sino US negotiations inevitable?

category:Hot
 Changan sword: why is the outcome of Sino US negotiations inevitable?


In from May 3rd to 4th, the US Treasury Secretary led a visit to China and again focused his eyes on the Sino US trade war. The Sino US trade consensus of less than 200 words is rich in information: 1, both sides believe that the development of healthy and stable Sino US economic and trade relations is very important to the two countries, and is committed to solving relevant economic and trade issues through dialogue and consultation. 2, the two sides fully exchanged views on expanding the export of the United States to China, bilateral trade in services, two-way investment, the protection of intellectual property rights, and the settlement of tariff and non-tariff measures, and reached some consensus in some areas. 3, the two sides recognize that there are still some major differences on some issues and need to continue to intensify their work and make more progress. 4, the two sides agreed to continue to maintain close communication on relevant issues and establish corresponding working mechanisms. Since the trade war, the attitude of the Chinese government has been very clear. If the United States has to do anything, China will always be welcome, but welcome the us to negotiate with China anytime. In fact, there have been reports earlier that the Trump administrations May 1st grace period for allies to exempt steel and aluminum tariffs may be extended. This shows that Japan, France and Germany have made some achievements in rotation to the United States. The tough attitude of the United States has been loosened, and it also indicates that the United States will have a compromise on the Sino US trade war. During the Sino US trade consultation, the following 3 important messages were revealed in the consensus reached on some issues. Trade war is not the one that the two countries can bear There are two reasons for the United States to launch a trade war. One is the huge Chinas trade surplus with the United States. How serious is this problem? I am afraid the two governments are not clear about it. Because many of these are re export processing trade, if we remove this part of the value, I am afraid the trade surplus will be much smaller. The two is the threat of Chinese manufacturing to the US manufacturing industry. But the decline of the US manufacturing industry is not caused by China, but by the division of labor and profit distribution. In other words, it is a market behavior. As to whether American manufacturing is weak, it is a false proposition in itself. From this time, the sanctions against ZTE chips made us see its own shortcomings and saw the maturity of the advanced manufacturing industry in the United States. Moreover, the manufacturing industry in China and the United States is not at the same stage, so the competition is impossible. Therefore, the foundation of trade war is not established. On the one hand, China is the largest trading partner of the United States, and the United States has gradually surpassed the EU in the past two years, becoming an important trading partner of our country, with high dependence on the trade between the two countries. To fight a trade war, it is definitely not just one thousand of the enemy, but eight hundred of its own. With the development of globalization, the worlds economy is linked together, so China US trade war is likely to involve the world in a more serious global economic crisis. The outcome of the negotiation is bound to be partial In addition to being economically closely related, strategically, choosing a trade war with China at this time is not conducive to the layout of the future strategy of the United States. First, the United States needs Chinas cooperation in key areas. While the United States launched a trade war against China, Trump said several times on tweet, having a good relationship with general secretary Xi Jinping, and thanking China for its efforts on the Korean nuclear issue, so that the United States had an important turn for the DPRK. This detail proves from the side that Chinas role should not be underestimated in the USs resolution of the DPRK nuclear issue. Trump got the first opportunity on the North Korean nuclear issue, but soon the US and DPRK leaders meeting was the highlight. Is there any need for Chinas help in this process? The answer is clearly affirmative. The two is to pave the way for the future strategic layout. Compared with the Sino US trade war, the departure of the Iran nuclear agreement is already in the firing line. How will Trump move? It is an issue that the United States must focus on. If the United States is again involved in the Middle East whirlpool, although China may not play an important role as the Korean question, it will stabilize China and reach agreement on some key issues and remain mysterious on some issues. Such strategic extortion is very helpful for the United States to make a difference on the Iran issue. Therefore, the outcome of Sino US trade negotiations will not be complete and inevitable. Sino US trade negotiations in the future Its still a hard trip. It is undeniable that China and the United States still have differences when they cooperate. The biggest source of divergence is the USs concern about Chinas rise. In the United States, the strength of the United States is declining, the cost of global hegemony is increasing, the domestic differentiation is becoming more and more serious, and the US strategy to China will become more and more severe. It is inevitable to tap and blackmail China by using political and economic military means in a timely manner. The formulation of the strategic competitor also shows that the United States has to treat more and more powerful China with prudence, and it also indicates that the price and attitude of the United States to China will increase in the future, thus increasing the difficulty and price of the negotiations. This time, the trade negotiations between China and the United States have been hard and difficult to talk about. The disagreement of trade has not been completely resolved. The two sides will continue to discuss the consensus on this trade negotiation. It can be seen that the future is still very difficult. But in any case, the trade war itself is resolved by negotiation. It shows that cooperation is more effective and effective than confrontation in the current international situation. In 2017, during the visit of general secretary Xi Jinping to the United States, China and the United States proposed to establish four high-level dialogue mechanisms (diplomatic security dialogue comprehensive economic dialogue law enforcement and network security dialogue social and human dialogue), indicating that the two countries communication solutions to resolve differences have not changed. China and the United States are an important country in the world. The two countries maintain a stable cooperative relationship, which is conducive to the operation of the international community, is conducive to the positive and healthy direction of the world economy, and is also conducive to the normal development of the two countries. When the East wakes up, should the world tremble or smile? The answer may not be as bad as you think.