On January 23, after a speech by Wang Qishan, Vice President of China, during the World Economic Forum in 2019, a wonderful dialogue was held with Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum.
Schwabs questions focused on five aspects: Chinas economic growth, the wave of anti-globalization, the global economy, Sino-US relations, and the fourth industrial revolution.
Chinas development will be sustainable
In 2015, Chinas implementation of the 8.11 exchange rate reform triggered shocks in emerging markets, and people from all walks of life began to pay close attention to the spillover effect of Chinas economy. In 2019, Chinas economy is facing downward pressure and external uncertainties still exist. How will the Davos Forums focus return to Chinas economic trend affect the world?
In view of Chinas economic development, Wang Qishan said: I remember that I participated in a discussion in 2016. If China maintains an annual growth rate of 4.5% by 2016, we will be able to achieve Deng Xiaopings task of achieving a well-off society in an all-round way and quadrupling the gross national product. Now it is 6.6%. I think this is a fairly low speed.
Speed is important, but quality, structure and efficiency are more critical, said Wang Qishan.
He said: My overall view is that despite all kinds of risks, challenges and difficulties, it is no longer a problem for us to achieve a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020. We will only exceed the expected goal and will not fail to achieve it, which is an indisputable fact. No matter what will happen in the uncertain year 2019, it is probably certain that Chinas development will be sustainable.
In view of the current anti-globalization wave and populism, Wang Qishan believes that globalization is a historical trend and that imbalance in the process is inevitable. In philosophical sense, balance is relative and imbalance is absolute.
He said that when there is imbalance, some people feel the imbalance response, which is reasonable. The fundamental problem is that in the process of insisting on making the cake bigger, governments should take various policies and measures to eliminate imbalance and make the choice of fairness and efficiency, so as to make the imbalance stop expanding as far as possible, and to curb this trend of expansion.
If we can achieve these goals, I think globalization will be further guaranteed. He said.
There are different opinions on the global economic cycle
Before the opening of this years Davos Forum, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its global economic growth forecast by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points to 3.5 and 3.6% in 2019 and 2020 respectively, and said downside risks were accumulating. To this end, Schwab asked Wang Qishan, Do you think you are well prepared?
Wang Qishan answered, Fortune or misfortune cant be avoided. What if there is a real crisis? Besides, is this cycle at its peak? I think people with different opinions have different opinions, and wise people have different opinions.
He also said: For example, there are also views that Chinas economic development has come to an end, but in Chinas view, we are not only not finished, we are also sustainable. So different people have different opinions and wise people have different opinions. He stressed that to do well in our own affairs, China has developed well, and the integration and complementarity of China and the world economy, and development itself is a contribution to all mankind and the world.
Wang Qishan also mentioned why the financial crisis of 2008 passed so quickly instead of the Great Depression as it did at the end of the last century. I think the financial crisis on Wall Street passed in a very short time because of the globalization of emerging market economies.
There is also a view that the disease is acquired by the United States. How can Chinese medicine be used more rapidly than the United States? Wang Qishan explained: The attitude and measures taken by the Chinese government after 2008 reflect that China is responsible. At that time, the policies and measures we adopted helped the world get through the crisis quickly. This is the contribution of emerging economies. Overall, I am optimistic about the economic prospects.
Wang Qishan said that he did not agree that there must be a crisis in the future of the global economy at first. But in this uncertain world, there is a crisis. I think it is like a cold and fever, and the last test is the wisdom and hard work of all mankind. From the historical, philosophical and cultural point of view, mankind will not be stumped by a crisis, but fever is the time to test immunity. He said.
For Chinas economy, Wang Qishan admits that he is an optimist.
Sino-US relations should be mutually beneficial and win-win
When Schwab asked about the prospects of Sino-US relations, Wang Qishans answer was very concise and clear -- No one can do without anyone in the Sino-US economy, which is already a reality. Therefore, the conclusion is that mutual benefit and win-win situation will result in two injuries and two benefits will result in two benefits. Thats the basic judgment.
Because of the budget deadlock, President Trump, who announced in early January that he would not attend the Davos Forum, cancelled the entire U.S. delegations trip to Davos. It was U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Secretary of State Pompeo who were supposed to lead the U.S. team.
As of January 23, the U.S. government closed its doors for the 33rd day, continuing the record of the longest shutdown in history.
Rules and standards under industrial 4.0 should keep pace with the times
The theme of this years Davos Forum is Globalization 4.0: Building a Global Structure in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and it is undeniable that the Fourth Industrial Revolution is also challenging some of the existing standards.
Wang Qishan said that the fundamental change of industrial 4.0 lies in scientific discovery and technological innovation. Problems arising in development need to be solved by development, and the driving force for development lies precisely in science and technology. Development has new momentum of technological innovation, which will inevitably make development take on a new look and bring happiness and hope to mankind as a whole, but at the same time, it will certainly challenge some rules and standards.
In view of the rules and standards, Wang Qishan believes that all walks of life need to proceed from reality and keep pace with the times to adjust and reform. He emphasizes that rules can not go ahead of development.
Wang Qishan takes the experience of financial supervision at the Central Bank of China as an example. He said, I told a story at that time. There is a saying in Chinese history that isDevil is one foot tall and one foot tall and one foot tall. I said that incorrectly. For example, strictly speaking, the police always walk behind the thieves. If the police keep ahead of the thieves, there will be no thieves in the world, and so will the relationship between supervision and market. So we should revise a sentence, that is, the devil is one foot tall and the Tao is eight inches and five inches tall.
If you steal something, 60% of the thieves can be caught, thieves can be much less, of course, no thieves is impossible, this is the ideal and idealized difference, that is, the difference between supervision and market, that is, the difference between standards and innovation. Wang Qishan said.