In January 2019, economic data were released one after another. Although this years data is not as dazzling as in previous years, it is also very rare.
Recently, Chongqing, Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai and Anhui have released their economic data for 2018, and the growth rate has generally slowed down.
Chen Yao, secretary-general of the China Regional Economic Association, pointed out that since the third quarter of 2018, it is difficult to find double digits in the economic data published by various regions, and they do not pursue high speed. This may be a good weather and focus on quality.
The economy of high-growth areas has also slowed down.
Since January 22, local statistical bureaus have released economic data for 2018, which is not very eye-catching. Even Guizhous black horse economic growth in 2017 is slowing down.
In 2017, Guizhous economic growth rate was 10.2%, ranking first in the country. Growth has fallen by more than a percentage point in 2018.
Beijing and Shanghai reported economic growth of 6.6% in 2018, down from 6.7% and 6.9% in the previous year, respectively. Sichuan and Anhui are 8% and 8.02% respectively, slowing down compared with 8.1% and 8.5% in the previous year. Among them, Anhui has published two digits after decimal point.
In addition, the economic growth rates of Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi in 2018 were 7.8%, 7.8% and 8.7% respectively, which were 0, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous year. In 2018, Chongqings economic growth rate was 6%, which was much lower than that of the previous 9.3%.
This result has been achieved under the circumstances of complex internal and external economic environment and severe downward pressure of economic growth. On January 22, when talking about Guizhous economic growth in 2018, Xiao Yunhui, director of Guizhou Statistical Bureau, said that this achievement was hard won.
Xiao Yunhui pointed out that Guizhous GDP grew by 9.1% in 2018, which was 2.5 percentage points higher than that of the whole country, and was still in a relatively fast growth range. Compared with previous years, although it has slowed down, the volume of economic development is doubling, the momentum is continuously increasing, the economic structure is constantly optimizing, the quality and benefit are steadily improving, and the foundation of high-quality development is further consolidated.
In 2018, like the whole country, Guizhous main economic indicators, such as industry, investment and consumption, continued to decline, and the downward pressure of economic growth continued to increase. Over the years, Guizhou has witnessed double-digit industrial growth, but a low growth rate of 5.5% once a month last year.
Similar situation also exists in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, Chongqing and other places, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, and even more than one month of scale industries show negative growth.
Jiangsus economic growth in 2018 is expected to be 6.7%, down from 7.2% in the previous year. Xinjiang and Heilongjiang are expected to grow at about 6% and 5% in 2018, which are lower than 7.6% and 6.4% of the previous year respectively.
Tang Jianwei, chief analyst of the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, believes that the annual economic growth rate of 6.6% nationwide in 2018 is the lowest since 1990. GDP grew by 6.4% in the fourth quarter, falling below the 6.5% range again since the first quarter of 2009. Considering the recent performance of some leading economic indicators and economic data, the downward pressure in the first half of 2019 is still relatively high.
The slowdown in consumption and infrastructure investment is the main reason for the economic slowdown. The slowdown of capital investment is related to the strengthening of risk management and control by the state. Since 2018, the scale of urban investment debt and off-balance-sheet financing has been greatly reduced, which is undoubtedly the main reason for the lack of capital for infrastructure investment.
However, considering that macro-policy has begun to adjust counter-cyclically, the role of policy in economic growth will be changed from the previous years restraint to support and underpin. Chinas economic operation in 2019 should not be overly pessimistic, and growth may still run in a reasonable range. Tang Jianwei said.
High growth rate no longer, looking for new growth point
From the economic growth rate announced in 2018, it is difficult to pursue high speed in 2019.
Chen Yao pointed out that all regions are facing great difficulties in development. In the past, the central and western regions developed faster than the eastern regions, but now many leading industries in the central and western regions have problems. The slowdown in car consumption across the country has impacted Chongqings automobile industry and notebook computer industry, while the coastal economy may be constrained by slower external demand this year.
Chen Yao said that all parts of the country are now looking for new growth points, but they cant go to big data, intelligent manufacturing and other industries at will. Instead, they need to transform traditional industries. Simply developing big data and intelligent manufacturing, it is difficult to make big breakthroughs. It is also easy to form overcapacity. The core is to use new technologies to promote the upgrading of traditional industries.
In 2019, the national GDP and local unified accounting will be implemented. The National Statistical Bureau will calculate the GDP of each province, and the provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions will recalculate the GDP of each city. This means that the way of injecting economic data has been lost.
At present, all regions are speeding up industrial upgrading and increasing the impetus of scientific and technological innovation to the economy.
The Liaoning Provincial Government Work Report in 2019 proposed that we should implement the innovation-driven development strategy in depth, promote the high-quality development of manufacturing industry to a new level, and comprehensively promote the construction of innovative provinces. Increase investment, improve the mechanism, deepen the reform of science and technology system, R&D expenditure accounted for 2.15% of GDP.
The report on the work of the Anhui Provincial Government proposes to implement 500 major scientific and technological projects and key R&D projects. Focus on information, energy, health, environment and other fields, concentrate on brain science and disease, targeted drugs, nanomaterials, new energy and other areas to carry out scientific and technological research, and strive to achieve a number of breakthroughs.
In addition to increasing the pace of scientific and technological innovation, local governments should also speed up the solution to the problem of slowing down consumption growth and investment and other domestic demand. At present, the growth rate of household appliances, automobiles, mobile phones and other industries in the whole country is slowing down. How to release the potential and promote the rapid growth of investment and consumption in various regions requires great efforts.
In 2018, the growth of investment and consumption was high in many places, such as the central and Western regions, but there were also many places where the slowdown was obvious. In 2018, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Guizhou Province totaled 397.121 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% over the previous year. Excluding the low real growth rate of prices, the gap between the retail sales of social consumer goods and the double-digit growth rate of some provinces and municipalities in central China is large.
Lu Libo, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council and deputy secretary-general of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, pointed out that the key to promoting consumption is to have a good consumption environment. For example, the middle class has the need to buy automobiles and household appliances, but many places restrict the purchase of automobiles. In addition, the price of ladder electricity has restrained the consumption of household appliances.
Source: Han Jiapeng-NN9841, Responsible Editor of Economic Reporting in the 21st Century