In 2018, Chinas total population has maintained a steady growth, and the effect of the comprehensive two-child policy continues to show. The scale of urban population and the quality of urbanization have been improved.
I. Our country is still in a period of steady growth of the total population.
At the end of 2018, Chinas total population was 139,538,000, a net increase of 5.3 million people over the end of 2017; the annual birth population was 15.23 million, a decrease of 2 million people over 2017; and the death population was 9.93 million, a slight increase of 70,000 people over 2017. The birth rate was 10.94, down 1.49 points from 2017; the mortality rate was 7.13, up 0.02 points; and the natural population growth rate was 3.81, down 1.51 points. In 2018, Chinas birth population decreased by 2 million compared with the previous year, mainly affected by two factors. First, the number of women of childbearing age continues to decrease. In 2018, the number of women of childbearing age aged 15-49 in China decreased by more than 7 million compared with that in 2017, of which more than 5 million women of childbearing age aged 20-29 in the period of high fertility. Second, the fertility level is slightly lower than that of last year. In 2016 and 2017, the comprehensive two-child policy was released centrally. In 2018, the effect of the policy was weakened, and the two-child fertility tended to be stable. Affected by this, the two-child fertility rate declined in 2018, making the overall fertility level slightly lower than the previous year. Nevertheless, due to the large scale of women of childbearing age in China, nearly 100 million women of childbearing age in the booming period of childbearing. According to the current number, structure and fertility level of women of childbearing age, the number of births per year in China will continue to decrease in the future, but it will still be significantly larger than the number of deaths, and the total population is still in a relatively stable growth period.
2. The effect of the comprehensive two-child policy continues to show.
After the Fifth Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to implement the policy of one couple having two children in an all-round way in 2015, the birth population and the birth rate in 2016 and 2017 have greatly increased. Although the birth population and the birth rate in 2018 are lower than those in 2017, the fertility level of women of childbearing age is still higher than that before the implementation of the two children alone and two children in an all-round way policy, and the number and proportion of births with two or more children are also significantly higher than that with one child. The comprehensive two-child policy has played a positive role in promoting fertility. The number of two-child births has largely alleviated the impact of the reduction in the number of births, which is conducive to improving the age structure of the population and promoting the balanced development of the population.
3. Continuous improvement of urban population size and urbanization quality
By the end of 2018, the permanent population in cities and towns reached 83.13 million, an increase of 17.9 million over the end of 2017, while the rural permanent population reached 56.41 million, a decrease of 12.6 million. The urbanization rate of the permanent population (the proportion of urban population) in China is 59.58%, which is 1.06 percentage points higher than that at the end of 2017. The increase of urban population is mainly affected by three factors: urban regional expansion, urban population natural growth and rural population migration, which affect the urbanization rate by 0.42, 0.25 and 0.39 percentage points respectively. With the solid advancement of regional coordinated development strategy, the pace of urbanization of agricultural transfer population has accelerated, the number of urban residents has increased, and the number of separated households and floating population has decreased by 4.5 million and 3.78 million respectively compared with the end of last year. More rural population will be transformed into urban residents, enjoy basic public services and social security in cities and towns, and truly realize the transformation from township to city.
4. The working-age population has declined and the degree of ageing has deepened, but the labor resources are still abundant and have great potential.
At the end of 2018, the population aged 0-15 was 248.6 million, accounting for 17.8% of the total population; the population aged 16-59 was 897.29 million, accounting for 64.3%; the population aged 60 and over was 249.49 million, accounting for 17.9%, of which 166.58 million, accounting for 11.9%. Compared with the end of 2017, the working-age population of 16-59 years decreased by 4.7 million people, the proportion decreased by 0.6 percentage points; the proportion of the elderly population continued to rise, including 8.59 million people aged 60 years and over, the proportion increased by 0.6 percentage points; the population aged 65 years and over increased by 8.27 million people, the proportion increased by 0.5 percentage points, and the degree of population aging continued to deepen.
At present, Chinas population development is in a major turning point. With the change of age structure, since 2012, the number and proportion of the working-age population in China has declined for seven consecutive years, reducing by more than 260 million people in seven years. Affected by the continuous decline of the working-age population, the total labor supply has declined, and the total number of employed people in China has also declined for the first time at the end of 2018. It is expected that the total number of employed people will continue to decline in the next few years. At the same time, the rising proportion of the elderly population has increased the burden of the working-age population, and posed challenges to economic development and social security.
Over the past year, Chinas 16-59-year-old working-age population has continued to decline, and the total employment population has declined for the first time. However, the total working-age population is still nearly 900 million, the total employment population is still 780 million, and the labor resources are still abundant. Through improving the labor participation rate, expanding and ensuring employment, the existing working-age population and the employed population can play a good role, and then through excellence. It has great potential to change the structure of population and working-age population, improve the quality of population and working-age population, and give full play to the role of human resources and human resources.
The CPC Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to population issues in the new period, deeply grasp the law of population development and change, scientifically formulate countermeasures, implement a series of national strategies such as balanced population development, active response to population aging and aging society, optimize and improve the structure and quality of the working-age population, and continuously promote the sustainable, coordinated and healthy development of population and social economy.
Source: Qian Mingxiao_NBJ10675, Responsible Editor of China Economic Network