January 21, 2018 demographic data came out. While people lament that young people dont like to have children, another data makes the majority of male compatriots feel like needles and needles.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2018, according to the gender structure, the male population was 713.51 million and the female population was 681.87 million, with a sex ratio of 104.64 (100 for women).
According to the total population, there are 31.64 million more males than females in mainland China. How should the future society digest the 30 million leftover men group? The more heartfelt news is that although the proportion of men and women in the total population of our country has returned to balance year by year, in the Post-00 group, every 100 women should correspond to about 118 men, and the matching of men and women of the right age will be pressure mountain.
Zhai Zhenwu, a professor at the School of Society and Population, Renmin University of China, told the Daily Economic Journalist.
When the sex ratio at birth continues to be high, men may go down to a lower age to find a spouse, which in turn squeezes men in the next age group.
Unless large-scale migration occurs, the long-term accumulation of more than 30 million leftover men will not be mitigated in the short term.
The imbalance between men and women has been alleviated year by year.
More than 30 million men, why am I still single? After the publication of the population data in 2018, there were many similar jokes on Weibo. However, in order to understand the demographic data deeply, more in-depth research is needed.
Daily economic journalists sort out the phenomenon that the male population is more than the female population in our country has appeared since the 1950s. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sex ratio between 60 and 64 years old is 100.03, which is the most balanced stage in China. In the group under 60 years old, the number of males is higher than that of females.
According to experts, it is normal that the number of males is higher than that of females, but it needs to be controlled within a certain range. Song Yueping, associate professor at the School of Society and Population, Renmin University of China, said that the proportion of males in Chinas population is relatively high, and the overall gender structure is in a slightly unbalanced state. We usually use the sex ratio data of the birth population to judge whether the sex ratio is unbalanced. If 103 to 107 males are born for every 100 females, this is a normal sex ratio in the population.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the imbalance between men and women in China has eased year by year since 2006, with the proportion of men and women declining for 12 consecutive years.
According to the data, the gap between the number of men and women decreased from 34.01 million in 2011 to 32.66 million in 2017. By the end of 2018, there were only 31.64 million more men than women in China.
Song Yueping believes that this does not mean that more than 30 million men can not find a partner. The behavior of choosing a spouse is somewhat exquisite. The marriageable age of men and women is different. A 26-year-old woman does not necessarily marry a 26-year-old man. Marriage does have greater problems for men at the bottom who are in poor areas, have relatively low education and have relatively low incomes.
More than one million males annually after 2000
In terms of the proportion of the total population, the situation of more men than women has been alleviated. However, according to age, the imbalance between men and women is particularly significant among people under 24 years of age.
According to the data of the sex ratio of men and women in all age groups published by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2017, the sex ratio of men and women in the population born after 1994 has exceeded 110. Among them, the sex ratio of 20-24 years old is 110.98; that of 15-19 years old is 117.7; that of 10-14 years old is 118.46; that of 5-9 years old is 118.55; and that of 0-4 years old is 114.52.
That is to say, in the post-90s age group, the sex ratio has exceeded 110, which means that 100 women correspond to 111 men. But after 00, it is more exaggerated, with the highest sex ratio reaching 118.55. That is to say, 100 females correspond to 118 males, and about 18% of males can not match females of the same age.
Zhai Zhenwu told the Daily Economic Journalist that since the 1990s, the sex ratio at birth in China has been rising. At that time, the national sex ratio at birth reached about 120, and in some provinces, the sex ratio at birth even exceeded 130. The sex ratio at birth in China has increased since 1985 and reached a peak around 2000. Therefore, this gender ratio deviation will be reflected in the post-90s and post-00s.
In addition, according to the 2010 census of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total number of the Post-00 population is about 146 million, of which nearly 13 million more boys than girls. Boys of every age are about 1.3 million more than girls. The first batch born after 2000 is now 18 years old, and they are about to enter the age of marriage.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of males and females born in 2000 was about 118.23. There were 7.83 million boys and 6.62 million girls. There were 1.21 million more boys than girls.
In the next few years, the proportion of men and women in China has remained between 117 and 121. The proportion of males and females born in 2001 was 118.45, 7.73 million for males and 6.52 million for females, 1.2 million more for males than for females, and 118.9 for males and females born in 2002. By 2009, the ratio of male to female births reached 121.06, with 8.58 million boys, 1.5 million more than girls.
Expert: Artificial intervention is not excluded
Whats the reason for the serious imbalance between men and women after 2000?
Zhai Zhenwu believes that sex discrimination and selective abortion are one of the reasons for the imbalance of sex ratio. Internationally, the sex ratio at birth in many countries is around 106, which is a normal natural phenomenon. Once more than 110, or even 120, there must be human intervention factors.
Zhai Zhenwu also revealed that in the 1990s, there was a phenomenon of concealment of the birth of girls in rural areas, which would objectively lead to some errors in statistics. For example, if a child is a girl, he wants to have a second child. If the second child is still a girl, the family usually conceals it and even wants to have a third child. The phenomenon of concealment in rural areas will also have an objective impact on the work of population and gender statistics.
Lu Jiehua, a professor at Peking University, believes that the male population is larger than the female population, and the decline in marriage rate will be more severe, with many men having difficulty finding a marriage partner. Coupled with the gradual improvement of womens educational level and other factors, will affect the future social and marital status.
Wang Jie, an anonymous father-to-be, told the Daily Economic News that although regular hospitals do not allow prenatal sex determination by B-mode ultrasound, there are still other ways. When we went through security checks, we looked at the sex of the fetus through our friends. It is said that the accuracy of this method is more than 80 percent.
In addition, Zhai Zhenwu also introduced that in areas where the policy of one child and a half is adopted (the first child is a daughter, which can give birth to a second child after several years), the gender imbalance in the second child is very serious. The ratio of male to female infants is as high as 150:100, or even 180:100. There are non-medical needs through fetal identification, as well as non-medical needs of selective abortion, to achieve the purpose of giving birth to boys.