Experts on the decline of birthrate for two consecutive years: This trend will continue

 Experts on the decline of birthrate for two consecutive years: This trend will continue

These data show that China has experienced two consecutive years of declining birth rate and natural population growth rate in 2017 and 2018.

Ningjizhao said that the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics clearly showed that in 2018, Chinas population was not only growing positively, but also the number of births was relatively large, with 15.23 million people. This figure is still considerable. As for the decline of population growth rate and birth rate, the population data should not only be observed for one year, but also for a long time. Historically, we have had a population peak, and now the structural change of population occurs spontaneously. Therefore, there is no need to over-interpret it.

Zhai Zhenwu, a professor at the School of Society and Population, Renmin University of China, interpreted the data and said that the number of births and the birth rate in China declined last year. There are two reasons for this. First, our birthrate is higher in the first two years. The main reason is that the cumulative effect of two children is being released, and the birthrate has gradually dropped in the last two years. The second reason is that a large number of women of childbearing age are withdrawing from the period of fertility boom. People born from 1985 to 1990 are now in their thirties one after another, so the number of women of childbearing age is less than before, and the number of children is naturally less than before. Such a trend should be said to be quite normal and predictable. The same situation will continue, and the number of births in China will decrease year by year. The trend is obvious in the next few years. The number of births in 2019 may be smaller than that in 2018. In the future, the birth rate will gradually decrease and the mortality rate will gradually increase. If the two are equal, the Chinese population will enter a Zero-growth state, which will probably occur in 2002. Zhai Zhenwu said.

Source: Yang Yi_NBJ10647, Responsible Editor of Beijing Newspaper