Information map. Sino-Singapore Longitudinal and Latitude Photography
Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client January 21, 2018, the national real estate market, from the time point of view, can be described as two days of ice and fire, bustling in the first half, cold in the second half. But even so, Chinas property market, which has been operating at a high level, is still creating new peaks.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 21st, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing in China reached 17 trillion square meters and 14.9 trillion yuan respectively in 2018, setting a historical record. The average sales price of commercial housing was about 8736 yuan/square meters, of which the average residential price was about 8544 yuan/square meters, up 930 yuan/square meters from 2017. At the same time, the area of commercial housing for sale continued to decrease, and the inventory scale dropped to a 57-month low.
No price reduction for the house?
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According to the national real estate development investment and sales situation published by the National Bureau of Statistics in January-December 2018, in 2018, the sales area of commercial housing was 1716.54 million square meters, an increase of 1.3% over the previous year, and the growth rate fell by 6.4 percentage points over the previous year. Sales area slowed down dramatically, but sales still maintained a double-digit growth. In 2018, sales of commercial housing reached 14973 billion yuan, an increase of 12.2%, a decline of 1.5 percentage points over the previous year.
In such a harsh housing policy and relatively pessimistic market expectations, real estate sales data in 2018 continue to maintain positive growth, the biggest reason is that the pace of urbanization is still accelerating, and the demand for housing is still strong. Yan Yuejin, director of research at the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said.
As for the data, it can be found that the growth of real estate sales in 2018 is significantly higher than that of sales area. Zhang Bo, chief analyst of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, believes that this is not only related to the rise in housing prices, but also affected by the high supply and demand in some strong second-tier cities, which has pushed up the turnover.
By dividing sales by sales area, the average sales price of commercial housing in China in 2018 was about 8,736 yuan per square metre, up 10.7% year-on-year. Yan Yuejin said that this was the largest annual increase since 2010.
Commodity housing includes residential, office building and commercial business housing. Residential occupies the largest proportion. In 2018, residential sales area and sales volume accounted for 86% and 84% of commercial housing sales area and sales volume respectively. Separately, in 2018, the average sales prices of residential, office and commercial housing in China were 8544 yuan/square metre, 14387 yuan/square metre and 11151 yuan/square metre, respectively, which were 930 yuan/square metre, 844 yuan/square metre and 828 yuan/square metre higher than the average prices in 2017.
_The sales area of commercial housing in the eastern and northeastern regions showed negative growth, while the sales volume in the central and western regions increased substantially. Photo Source: National Bureau of Statistics website
Regionally, the sales area of eastern and northeastern China showed negative growth, falling by 5% and 4.4% respectively, while that of central and Western China increased by 6.8% and 6.9%. In terms of sales volume, the eastern and northeastern regions increased by 6.5% and 7.0% year on year, while the central and western regions showed double-digit growth, reaching 18.1% and 23.4% respectively.
Zhang Dawei, Chief Real Estate Analyst of Central Plains, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that from the national point of view, the rise in house prices is still the mainstream, although the trend of differentiation continues, especially in the central and Western regions, where the increase in sales area far exceeds the average increase in the national market, third-tier cities have become the focus of the current round of price increases and sales area increases.
Upward trend is difficult to sustain
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In 2018, Chinas real estate development investment exceeded 12 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.5% over the previous year, and an increase of 2.5 percentage points over the same period last year. Yan Yuejin believes that the above data are obviously better than expected, although there are various cooling trends, but it shows that the business mentality is still good. At the same time, new housing construction area reached 2.09 billion square meters, an increase of 17.2%. The growth rate can be described as exuberant, which is related to the accelerated development of enterprises in the face of financial pressure.
But some data are already showing signs of decline. In 2018, the land purchasing area of real estate development enterprises was 29.14 million square meters, an increase of 14.2% over the previous year. The growth rate dropped 0.1 percentage points from January to November, and 1.6 percentage points from the previous year. According to the data of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, the average floor price of 50 big cities in 2018 was 2277 yuan per square metre, which was 13.3% lower than 2627 yuan per square metre in 2017. This is the first time in many years that the land price has dropped significantly.
In terms of funds, the real estate development enterprises have 16.9 trillion yuan of funds in place, an increase of 6.4% over the previous year, and the growth rate fell by 1.8 percentage points compared with the previous year. Among them, domestic loans, personal mortgage loans and the use of foreign capital all showed negative growth; self-financing amounted to 558.31 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7%; deposits and receipts amounted to 554.18 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8%.
The rapid growth of self-financing, deposits and advance receipts indicates that more housing enterprises begin to adopt thehigh turnoverstrategy to improve the efficiency of capital utilization, while strengthening the return of pre-sale funds to reduce financial cost expenditure. Zhang Bo said.
Although the sales area and sales of commercial housing in 2018 set a record, but looking at 2019, some experts believe that this upward trend is difficult to sustain. Zhang Bo believes that the real estate market in 2019 can be described as two recessions, two stabilization, that is, sales recession, growth recession, land stabilization, confidence stabilization, under the control of housing does not speculate, this years commercial housing sales area may decline.
Looking from the market trend, the transaction area has shown a marked slowdown trend for more than a month in a row. Although there is a sprint sale at the end of the year, the transaction area has also been significantly reduced. If the regulation and control policies of the real estate market remain unchanged in 2019, the market will be significantly adjusted, and the inflection point has emerged. Zhang Dawei said.
After nearly two years of de-inventory, the area for sale of commercial housing in China has dropped to 520 million square meters, down 11.0% from the same period last year, and the inventory scale has dropped to a new low of 57 months. Yan Yuejin said that de-inventory is nearing the end, which will have a supporting effect on housing prices. With the increase of supply in 2019, inventory may rebound to the bottom.