Chinas birth rate has reached a record low of 60 years old and above, with a new high proportion of the population

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 Chinas birth rate has reached a record low of 60 years old and above, with a new high proportion of the population


By the end of 2018, the total population of the mainland of China (including 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and servicemen of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army, excluding Hong Kong, Macao Special Administrative Region, Taiwan Province and overseas Chinese) was 1395.38 million, an increase of 5.3 million over the end of last year. More than 2 million fewer people than 7.37 million in 2017.

The total number of births was 15.23 million. In 2017, the birth population was about 17.23 million, and in 2016, it was about 17.86 million. The birth scale of the population shrank for the second consecutive year. Moreover, the reduction of 2 million births in 2018 is substantially larger than the decrease of about 600,000 births last year.

In 2018, the birth rate was 10.94 per thousand. According to economic reports in the 21st century, this is the lowest level in history since 1949.

In 2018, 9.93 million people died, with a mortality rate of 7.13 per thousand and a natural population growth rate of 3.81 per thousand.

In terms of age composition, the proportion of people aged 60 years and over has reached a new high. Specifically, 897.29 million people aged 16 to 59, accounting for 64.3% of the total population; 249.49 million people aged 60 and above, accounting for 17.9% of the total population, including 166.58 million people aged 65 and over, accounting for 11.9% of the total population.

According to economic reports in the 21st century, the number of working people also declined for the first time in 2018. Data show that at the end of 2018, 775.86 million people were employed nationwide, compared with 776.4 million at the end of 2017, which is the first decline in recent years. The decline in the number of workers and employees indicates that the number of workers participating in labor is decreasing, which means that labor costs will increase rapidly in the future.

In terms of gender structure, the male population is 713.51 million and the female population is 681.87 million. The sex ratio of the total population is 104.64 (with 100 females).

From the perspective of urban and rural structure, the permanent population of cities and towns is 831.37 million, an increase of 17.9 million over the end of last year; the permanent population of villages is 564.01 million, a decrease of 12.6 million; and the proportion of urban population in the total population (urbanization rate) is 59.58%, which is 1.06 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year. The population of household segregation in China (i.e. the population whose residence and registered residence are not in the same Township street and who have left the registered residence for more than half a year) is 286 million, a decrease of 4.5 million over the end of last year, of which 241 million are migrants, a decrease of 3.78 million over the end of last year.

Chinas population is about to enter an era of negative growth

On January 3, 2019, the Population Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Science Literature Publishing House jointly published the Green Paper on Population and Labor: Report No. 19 on Population and Labor Problems in China, pointing out that the long-term low fertility rate will lead to a high degree of aging and population decline, thus bringing multiple challenges to social economy, and the era of negative population growth in China is approaching.

For China, whose fertility rate is changing rapidly, if the low fertility rate can not be reversed soon, it will face a more severe situation than other countries.

According to the plan of the United Nations, Chinas population will reach a peak of 1.442 billion in 2029, and enter a sustained negative growth since 2030. It will decrease to 1.364 billion in 2050 and 1.248 billion in 2065, that is to say, to the size of 1996.

However, if Chinas total fertility rate remains at 1.6 level, the negative population growth will be advanced to 2027, and the population will be reduced to 1.172 billion in 2065, which is equivalent to the size of 1990.

Source: Author of Wall Street News: Editor of Ye Zheng Liability: Li Hang_BJS 4645