Once upon a time, it was absurd to imagine a negative population growth in China. However, in recent years, there has been more and more discussion, and the forecast of when the negative population growth will come is also reported in the newspapers.
Although the latest births data for 2018 have not yet been published, the downward trend is more obvious from the expected births data for 2018 published in some places. Huang Kuangshi, an associate researcher at the China Population and Development Research Center, estimates that the size of the population born in 2018 will be between 15 million and 16 million, more than 1 million fewer than 17.32 million in 2017.
In the discussion voice of civil society, the government also interpreted the issue of population fertility in China.
On January 10, Song Cheng, spokesman of the State Health and Health Commission, said at the first press conference in 2019 that there were many factors affecting fertility, including the size of women of childbearing age, marriage age, reproductive age, economic and social factors, which were more complex. The Health Care Commission has been continuously monitoring the specific data in 2018, which will be released by relevant departments in the near future.
The Birth Population of Shandong Province in Erhao Da Province declined
Population growth is an important basis for economic and social development. Generally speaking, the total fertility rate is 2.1, which is the basic condition for a country to realize and maintain intergenerational replacement. The so-called total fertility rate refers to the average number of children per woman during the reproductive age of a country or region.
From 1949 to 1969, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China was about 6. In 1980, the total fertility rate was only 2.31, and in 1996 it dropped below 1.8. Since this century, Chinas total fertility rate has ranged from 1.5 to 1.6. According to the Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Chinas Health and Family Planning Business in 2016, Chinas total fertility rate has risen to 1.7 after the full implementation of the second child in 2016.
However, the data for 2017 was not published in the Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health and Family Planning in China in 2017. However, according to the number of new births published in the bulletin, the number of new births in China in 2017 was 17.58 million, accounting for more than 50% of all births, a decrease of 880,000 compared with 2016.
The green paper predicts that if Chinas total fertility rate remains at 1.6, negative population growth will advance to 2027.
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As for the situation in 2018, Song Jiansheng said that the Health and Health Commission has been continuously monitoring, and specific data will be published by relevant departments in the near future.
Although the national data have not yet been published, some places have published the expected population data. For example, Shandong, known as the most daring to have children, has seen a sharp decline in the expected number of births in some cities.
According to the statistics released by Qingdao, according to the structure of women of childbearing age and the fertility wish of the masses, it is estimated that about 90,000 people will be born in Qingdao in 2018. This figure is 22.2% lower than the 115,700 births in 2017.
From January to November 2018, 81112 people were born under the household registration system in Qingdao, a decrease of 21,737 people compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 21.1%. The birth rate of one child decreased by 8.8% and that of two children decreased by 29.0%.
According to Liaocheng data, from January to November 2018, 64 753 births were reported in Liaocheng, of which 40 782 were born, accounting for 62.98% of the total births, a decrease of 35.83%. Compared with 2016 and 2017, the number of births showed a downward trend.
Again, according to data released by Yantai, 42,897 people were born in January-October 2018, of which 2,079 were born, accounting for 47.04% of the total number of births. It is estimated that less than 60,000 people will be born in the whole year.
Reporters from the Daily Economic News (Nbdnews) noted that this forecast was significantly lower than the 726,000 births in Yantai in 2017.
Weifangs situation is that in the first 11 months of 2018, the citys registered population was born to nearly 100,000 people, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with the same period last year, of which more than 60,000 children, a decrease of nearly 40%.
In addition to Shandong Province, other areas also experienced a decline in the number of births. For example, in 2016, the total number of registered births in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, increased significantly, reaching 17,349 people, of which two children increased by 53%, to 5,760.
However, in 2017, the total number of registered children dropped 11.7% to 15313, while the number of second children increased to 6190, but the growth rate of 7.4% has slowed down significantly compared with 2016.
In 2018, the total number of registered births in Zhenjiang dropped to 14,080, of which 8,357 were for one child and 5,723 were for two children, with a slight decrease compared with the same period last year.
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The delivery rate in some hospitals can also reflect the fertility situation. For example, as of the end of November 2018, Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital had 12 143 births, which is expected to reach 14,000 this year, down from 15,203 in 2007.
According to Ren Zepings China Fertility Report 2019 published by Hengda Research Institute, Chinas birth population dropped to less than 15 million in 2018. This figure is more than 2 million fewer births than in 2017.
Deeply Promoting the Research on Fertility Policy
Tao Tao, associate professor of the School of Social and Population, Renmin University of China, said at a press conference of the Health and Health Commission that the birth population of 2018 needs to be viewed objectively in a longer period of time.
The size of the birth population is influenced by the size and structure of women of childbearing age. Tao Tao said that the scale of women of childbearing age between 15 and 49 reached its peak in 2011, and has been declining since then, and the corresponding birth population has also entered the downward channel. Structurally, the average age of women of childbearing age is increasing. Data from 2015 show that more than half of all women of childbearing age are over 40, which is also a factor.
Data show that in 2017, the number of women of childbearing age aged 15-49 decreased by 4 million compared with 2016, of which the number of women of childbearing age aged 20-29 declined by nearly 6 million in the booming childbearing period.
At the same time, with the development of economy and society, the age of first marriage and first child-bearing of women in China has been delayed. Tao Tao pointed out that the number of married people in China in 2017 was about 10.63 million, down 7% from the same period last year. Over the past three years, the average age of first and second births has been pushed back by one year, which will also have an impact on the size of the birth population and fertility level.
Since 2000, the annual population of births has fluctuated between 15 million and 18 million. Recently, the fluctuation is also increasing due to the factors of policy adjustment, as well as the influence of the choice of zodiac signs such as the Year of the Dragon and the Year of the Sheep. Tao Tao said.
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In the context of new changes in Chinas fertility situation, Tao Tao said that population surveillance needs to be further strengthened. The advancement of urbanization, the popularization of higher education and the delay of marriage and childbearing will all have some effects on the fertility level. The post-90s generation has become the main body of reproduction, and their conception and desire of reproduction have changed a lot. Therefore, it is very important to further strengthen population monitoring and master the pattern and law of population reproduction in the future. She said.
Some young parents want to live but dare not live situation also deserves attention. Tao Tao said that in many surveys, people do have some concerns in the process of childbearing and rearing. The voice of supporting economic and social policies is relatively high, mainly reflected in housing, employment, womens labor protection, taxation, maternity leave, infant care and other aspects, and there are some policy expectations. We need to build a family-friendly policy support system to help more families solve some practical difficulties in the process of childbearing and rearing.
Source: Daily Economic News Responsible Editor: Han Jiapeng_NN9841