Trumps well-worded video speech has blown up Washington.

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 Trumps well-worded video speech has blown up Washington.


Trump: The United States defeated ISIS. Its time to withdraw from Syria.

Todays front-page headlines in international media... Its still occupied by President Trump. The astonishing index is the same as before:

On the 19th local time, Trump claimed that the United States had completed its mission to combat the extremist organization ISIS in Syria, and then announced the withdrawal of all U.S. troops and government personnel in Syria.

Fighting Islam is the only reason the current government has kept U.S. troops in Syria, Trump wrote on social media Twitter, followed by a video address emphasizing that it is time for men and women servicemen who have made tremendous sacrifices for their country to go home.

The speech was well-worded and highly praised the sacrifice of American soldiers. It was not politically incorrect at all, but it immediately blew up Washington.

Withdraw troops

It is said that nearly all members of the Pentagon, including the current U.S. Defense Secretary Matisse, are opposed to the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. Bolton, an assistant to the U.S. National Security Service, recently said that as long as Irans Revolutionary Guard does not leave, the U.S. military cannot leave.

But in this sudden decision, everything seems powerless.

Senior Republican Senator Lindsay Graham, on Twitter after hearing the news, bluntly said, This is a mistake. Other top conservative figures in the party also opposed it, for a clear reason: ISIS power has not been completely wiped out, the U.S. military is gone, they may come back at any time.

However, according to the constitutional system of the United States, the President is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and he says withdrawal must be carried out. Agence France-Presse reported that a U.S. government official decisively planted - the withdrawal must be clean and unyielding.

Trumps decision made it impossible for European allies to calm down. The British governments first timetable stated that the threat of ISIS is still there. Although it did not say a word against the withdrawal of the US troops, the momentum of naysayer is obvious. Although the French and other European governments have not yet expressed their views, many politicians have confessed their worries about the return of ISIS.

If the US withdraws, will ISIS return? This is a false proposition.

When Russia had not come to the rescue site, Syrian government forces, supported by Shiite allies, had been struggling alone for more than four years. At that time, the ISIS was able to rise because the opposition forces supported by the West had great potential to discolor the mountains and rivers, and the Syrian Bashar government had to shrink its front and ensure key points.

Now, the opposition is basically forced into Idlibs conflict downgraded zone to survive; Syrian government forces and Russian forces in Syria are enough to subdue even the most arrogant ISIS forces. If we take into account the large number of volunteers from Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, it will not be a problem.

Unless Western countries invest several times more military aid to the opposition and let them exert tremendous pressure on Syrian government forces and Russian forces, it is no longer possible to lose ISIS, which is the vast majority of the territory to help the outside world.

problem

So whats the problem with the withdrawal of U.S. troops? Its a little more complicated.

First of all, Russia will be happy. After all, the presence of U.S. ground forces now makes Russias operations cautious, such as the Russian military contractors who suffered from U.S. air support when clashing with Kurdish forces a few days ago. Now the news of the withdrawal comes out. Although Russia may not be allowed to take any medicine sold in Trumps gourd at present, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesmans statement is very direct, which opens up good prospects for a political settlement of the Syrian problem.

Of course, Iran will also be more happy, so many years of bitter war has finally preserved its allies, Shias arc is basically shaping. In the face of American pressure in the future, there will be more room for manoeuvre.

But there are also less optimistic friends, such as Americas European allies. At present, there are hundreds of French troops in Syria, in addition to more than 2,000 US troops. When the U.S. Army left, France had only two choices: first, it was easy to bear the heavy burden alone, but it was difficult to do so. What was France like now, whether it was in the mood to invest money and increase its troops or not, Dao Shu neednt say much. Second, if the French army followed suit, Frances tortuous situation in the past few years would become a bamboo basketball fight empty.

Americas intervention in Syria is really a catch-up mentality, squeezing Russia from the ground to fight terrorism by the way. It really needs to pay a lot of money. For the US, which is not so well-off financially in the Obama era, it is still not willing to give up. But the EU, which originally planned to support the opposition in the Syrian civil war, is to highlight its independent Middle East policy and international influence. Likewise, it will be a bit of a chip to talk about protection fees with the United States in the future.

Now, if the French army cant sustain it, the dream will be disillusioned --- on future security issues, either obediently, double the military expenditure according to Trumps meaning, or only to engage in a European Army that cant be unified even at the linguistic level -- -- -- uuuuu Perhaps one of the purposes of Trumps withdrawal is to get European allies to pay honestly? Well, its not impossible to think of Trumps recent grumbling cuts in military spending.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Israel, Americas two iron allies in the Middle East, may not be happy. After all, the reduction of U.S. forces and the stability of the Bashar regime are not what they like. But in fact, they did not think that the U.S. military would withdraw today. Just look at how the UAE and Saudi Arabia studied and restored diplomatic relations with the Bashar regime last month.

However, there is not much to worry about either. First, there are still a lot of U.S. troops in the Middle East, thousands of U.S. troops in Iraq, and the Fifth Fleet is still stationed in Qatar. Americas determination to support them is not unswerving either - Trump admitted Jerusalem as the capital of Israel as soon as he took office, and the Kashuji affair was so heated that Trump faced the pressure of mid-term elections and refused to seriously sanction Saudi Arabia...

Next, whether Iran wins in Syria or not, it does not affect the basic security environment of Saudi Arabia and Israel at all. Who was Israel afraid of? Arab countries did not frown when the Middle East war took a single turn. Today, even if there are Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Lebanese Hezbollah forces operating on their territory in a broken Syria, it is impossible to pose a threat to security from the root. As long as the United States has not withdrawn its troops from the Middle East, there is nothing to fear.

A key

What is the impact of the U.S. withdrawal? One of the key points is Turkish President Erdogan, who has been skilled in the international arena in recent years.

A few days ago, he was still talking about the uprooting of the Kurdish WorkersParty (PKK), the US-backed Syrian Democratic Army (SDA). Erdogans Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations in the past two years have not been easy, mainly because the United States troops in Syria rushed to the Turkish Army and Kurdish armed forces in time to make a meat shield. Now that this obstacle is gone, it will be convenient for Turkey to make big strikes in the future.

Do you remember that when Erdogan knocked down the Russian plane, Uncle Damascus said that Putin and Erdogan are old political sticks, body flexibility is comparable to spring.

If the relationship between the United States and Turkey eases dramatically, the United States can still use its Turkish allies to express its own interests on the Syrian issue in the future, so even if it withdraws completely from Syria now, the United States will not be swept out.

Of course, taking this opportunity, Erdogan probably wont give up his hard-won relationship with Russia. Only by making Russia aware of its indispensable willingness to cooperate and compromise can Turkeys interests in Syria be truly maximized.

Whether Erdogan will actually uproot Kurdish forces is not certain. Even if the Kurdish armed forces lack the support of the United States, Turkeys current situation, whether from the financial, military or domestic security situation, will not allow it to do so.

A more realistic option would be for the Turkish Army to expel Kurdish militants from the present Turkish-Syrian border in the future, and support the Liberal Army he had retained to establish a quarantine there. As long as the path of Syrian Kurdish armed succession to Kurdish WorkersParty guerrillas in Turkey can be cut off, it will be enough.

As for whether the United States will return this opportunity and let Turkey ease its relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia, and not make its Middle East allies too uncomfortable, it is not impossible for Uncle Shimadzu.

Beyond Turkey, Russia is still very playful. Last year, when the war went smoothly, Russia had been pressing the Bashar regimes desire for unification by force and constantly advocating various ceasefire coordination mechanisms. Today, Russia is still talking about political settlement, which shows that Russia thinks its interests in Syria are secure. It is obviously not wise to play winner-take-all to prevent the United States from stepping down. Ukraine, after all, is absolutely more important in Russias situation.

When the U.S. withdraws its troops and other countries are safe and everything looks good, it is better not to forget that the U.S. national security doctrine has been listed as the other target of the main threat. The United States is obviously closing the front. It just announced two days ago that it would almost empty the African Command. Now it is withdrawing from Syria. If we can still take the fruits of this hand and pay more for the defense expenditure of NATO by Europe, is it to concentrate our efforts on what he wants to do most? We need to think about it carefully. Source: Chivalrous Island Author: Chivalrous Rock Responsible Editor: Su Hong-hung_NBJ9980

The United States withdraws its troops and other countries are safe and sound, and everything looks good?

Its better not to forget that Americas national security doctrine is listed as the other target of major threats. The United States has obviously closed down its front. Just two days ago, it announced that it would almost empty its African Command. Now it is withdrawing its troops from Syria. If we can still take the fruits of this hand and pay more for NATO defense expenditure from Europe, is this to concentrate our efforts on what he most wants to do?

We need to think about it carefully.