According to reports, a real estate intermediary in Shenzhen provided the Shenzhen Commercial Bank mortgage rate situation, showing that Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank, Bank of Beijing, Citibanks first home loan rate rose 10%, the interest rate was 5.39%. Prior to this, interest rates on first-home loans in Shenzhens four major banks all rose by 15%, with only a few small banks loosening.
The decline of the rising rate indicates that the increase of the first home mortgage rate has weakened, and the mortgage rate is likely to peak. With the continuation of regulation and control, house prices have stabilized in many places, especially in second-hand housing prices. Property trading has clearly been in a downturn. The downturn in market transactions indicates that both buyers and speculators have stopped or slowed down the pace, which is undoubtedly the most direct signal for banks. If interest rates on first-home loans continue to stay high or even rise, then the market downturn will be more serious.
The orientation of the regulation and control of the real estate market is the house is used for living, not for speculation, that is, to let commercial housing return to the residential property. If the house price tends to stabilize, or even fall, the interest rate of the first suite loan is still at a high level, or even continues to rise, it is difficult to reflect the characteristics of the house used for living, and it is difficult for ordinary residents to afford it. Only when the house price and the first house loan interest rate are double stable, can the rigid family really enjoy the housing and reflect that the house is used for living.
Shenzhens four banksfirst-home loan rate cuts may be a storm call for the first-home loan rate cuts. In the next time, other financial institutions may follow up and make adjustments to the current first-home loan policy.
Further news is that Heze in Shandong Province has relaxed the restriction policy and cancelled the original restriction on the sale of commercial housing, which also means that the regulation of the property market has loosened in some places. There is no doubt that the cancellation of the restriction policy in some areas and the reduction of the first house loan interest rate of the four banks in Shenzhen have formed an occasional and inevitable ensemble. So, does this accidental coincidence mean that the regulation of the property market is relaxed in an all-round way? I dont think so.
Up to now, no matter housing price or land price, market or government, buyers or developers, they have deeply realized that the effect of regulation has basically been achieved, housing prices have tended to be rational, and buyers, speculators and developers are gradually approaching rationality and becoming rational. This time, the four banks in Shenzhen reduced the interest rate of first-home loans, which is also a rational act. They are using actions to reflect the banksrationality on housing loans.
Average interest rates on mortgages have risen for nearly two years in a row, and the upward trend has lasted for a long time. Therefore, the four banks to reduce the first home loan interest rate is not a whim, but the time is ripe, has been able to meet the conditions for the reduction of mortgage interest rates, is a more rational way to reduce.
In fact, since October, some banks in Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other places have lowered the floating rate of the first home loan, and the adjustment has been weakened. In this case, it is even more clear that the mortgage rate may have reached the top window, and it is time to stop rising. Once other banks follow up, mortgage interest rates will enter a comprehensive downward phase.
In the face of downward pressure in the economy, the housing market can not continue to remain depressed, especially not large fluctuations. By lowering the interest rate of first-home loans and encouraging rigid demand, it will play a certain role in supporting the stability of the property market. Therefore, the four banks in Shenzhen have lowered the interest rate of first-home loans, which may be a pioneer in the future, and soon other regions and financial institutions will follow suit. At least, after January, this phenomenon will be more common and the pace will be faster. Only those regions with strong driving force for house price rise are likely to continue to tighten, and other regions will experience relaxation.
What we need to grasp is that relaxing the interest rate of first-home loans only reflects the support just needed, rather than the overall relaxation of the regulation and control of the real estate market, and curbing the rise of house prices is still the basic requirement and will not change. It is the foothold of policy adjustment to keep the just need and let it play its role.
Source: Ji Xueying_NN6784, responsible editor of Beijing Youth Daily