On December 18, Heze, Shandong Province, a news release of property sales restrictions. Many self-Media have identified it as the first shot to loosen regulation and control. Real estate stocks should also move forward. Under the logic of predicting the adjustment of regulatory policies, the real estate stocks in Shandong and the main layout of the third and fourth-tier cities have risen against the market.
Elimination of restrictions on sales - relaxation of real estate regulation - rising house prices - increase of land revenue... Logical chains seem to be emerging intact, but is it so simple?
Steamed buns should be eaten one mouthful at a time, and documents should be read word by word. First of all, we are most concerned about the cancellation of the restriction policy.
The original text is as follows:
Abolish the notice of Heze Municipal Peoples Government Office on Further Strengthening the regulation and control of the real estate market (No. 42 of Hezheng Office ),impose restrictive measures on the transfer of newly purchased housing in the main urban area and the counties where the volume of housing transactions is high and the pressure of stabilizing house prices is high. That is to say, the newly purchased commercial housing and second-hand housing can be listed at least two years after they have obtained the property right certificate. The time limit for non-local residents to purchase houses shall not be less than three years.
One year ago, Heze introduced a restriction policy. Locals can only sell houses after 2 years, and foreigners can only sell houses after 3 years. Now it is cancelled.
So why did you do that?
Heze is not original, nor the most ruthless. For example, Changsha, Hunan Province, which has a high-profile anti-speculation house, has a four-year limit on sales. Background, of course, is the central governments housing does not speculate policy. All over the country, according to housing prices, the tacit rule is house prices can not exceed July 2016 prices - although there is no public below, but just like the stock market IPO earnings ratio can not exceed 23 times, it has become an unwritten rule.
In fact, there have never been any national documents requiring restrictions on sales, that is to say, restrictions on sales are not prescribed actions. This alleged violation of the right to dispose of property is to regulate and control the self-pressure of various places under high pressure. Once a city takes the initiative to catch up with the trend, people follow suit. Since it is not a prescribed action, the shackles they put on are removed by themselves, and of course no one else can put their beaks.
What effect will the restriction have? First of all, the second-hand housing market.
Economics Ke asked an insider, he said, Limiting sales means reducing the supply of second-hand housing in the market, which in theory will push up the price of second-hand housing; with less turnover, our business is not good, and we cant say why it is so painful. However, the restriction of sales can also crack down on some speculators, the house is pressed in the hands, and the cost of capital is high.
On the other hand, if the supply of second-hand housing increases substantially, it will help to control second-hand housing prices, but also help to stabilize the prices of new housing. We should know that the new house price is the KPI index of policy monitoring, but the second-hand house price is not the monitoring index.
Hiding in the corner and secretly congratulating people should be some speculators, hoop curse suddenly removed, regardless of whether the hoarded house is sold or not, at least there is a chance to escape the day.
In fact, there is also a policy in Hezes new regulation policy which is rich in information:
On the basis of the existing supervision standards for the pre-sale funds of commercial housing in urban areas, other enterprises will be reduced by half, and the minimum supervision limit can be relaxed to 10%. At the same time, after the pre-sale funds of commercial housing enter the supervision account, the project supervision funds are no longer required to reach the established supervision quota before they can be withdrawn, as long as the proportion of supervision funds is retained enough, they can be used.
For this reason, the reporter of China Economic Weekly specially consulted the developer. He explained that this article can be summed up as a sentence, to loosen the bondage for developers, so that developers can get the money to sell houses as soon as possible, more convenient use of recycled funds.
The combination of lifting restrictions on sale and lifting supervision on pre-sale funds is to increase market liquidity, the former is to improve the liquidity of houses, and the latter is to improve the liquidity of developersfunds, hoping that the market will live up.
On December 19, Heze Housing and Construction Bureau issued its latest response
The truth is always hidden in the details.
In addition to canceling the focus of restrictions on sales, Economic Ke read through the full text of Heze Document carefully and carefully. The most concerned detail is the title of the document - Notice on Promoting the Reform of Shantytowns in the City and Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market (Hejian , No. 7).
There are seven points in the document. The first five points are the reform of the lecture hall. The contents of the cancellation of the restrictions are included in the document.
Shed change! Shandong is a national greenhouse, Heze is a Shandong greenhouse. Over the past few years, Shandong has ranked first in the country in the number of shed reform, accounting for about 12.7% of the country in 2017. What about Heze? In 2017, the amount of shed conversion reached 180,000 sets, accounting for about 3% of the country, ranking first among prefecture-level cities in the country.
Details are also hidden in the data, and there is one data that can be described as thriller. According to Hezes aforementioned notice, Shelter reform involves the vital interests of the masses. The interests of the residents are the same, and it is very easy to form groups for the common interests. This interest group in our city has reached more than 1.5 million people.
What is the concept of 1.5 million? According to public data, Heze has a population of more than 9 million, but only 600,000 people live in urban areas. Heze Municipal Committee and Municipal Government issued the Opinions on the Implementation of Building a Regional Central City in 2017. The goal is: by 2020, the built area of the central urban area will reach 156 square kilometers, and the population will reach 1.5 million.
From the comparison of the two sets of data, the shanty reform has been enlarged to the extreme, and the market seems to have been overdrawn.
According to public data, in November 2018, the average price of the first-hand house in Heze was 6080 yuan per square meter and that of the second-hand house was 6441 yuan per square meter. In December 2015, the average price of Heze residence was 412 yuan per square meter. The increase is not small.
After the sharp rise of house prices in the past two or three years, the six wallets of residents in the third and fourth tiers of cities have been emptied. Who will support the fragile house prices?
Heze is the epitome of the third and fourth-tier cities in China. In the past few years, shed reform has been one of the decisive factors in the real estate market of many third-and fourth-tier cities.
However, this year, the policy of greenhouse reform has been tightened in an all-round way. On October 8, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that cities and counties with insufficient inventory of commercial housing and high pressure of rising house prices should cancel the preferential policy of monetized resettlement as soon as possible.
A provincial housing and construction department also told economic Ke that the scale of greenhouse renovation will be greatly reduced next year. We should dissolve the stock and strictly control the increment.
Huachuang Securities believes that, affected by the tightening of the shed reform policy, the sales area of commercial housing in China is expected to fall by 5% in 2019 compared with the same period last year. Among them, the slowdown of shed conversion has a negative impact on sales of about 100 million square meters, mainly in the third and fourth-tier cities.
In November, the National 100 Cities Inventory Report showed that after 38 consecutive months of year-on-year decline in the national residential inventory in the third and fourth tier cities, for the first time there was a year-on-year positive growth.
Behind the rebound in inventory, there are some unsold houses in the third and fourth tier cities.
A real estate agent in Ningxiang, Hunan, told Economic Ke that the local house price could be described as a cliff-like decline. Large developers refitted their blanks from 7000 yuan per square meter to 4900 yuan per square meter or even 4300 yuan per square meter, which is actually a disguised price reduction. The second-hand housing industry is also very miserable. On average, we have at least one real estate brokerage shop closing every day.
But unlike Heze and Ningxiang, the regulation rhythm of the first-and second-tier cities is different. Some time ago, there was news that some funds were seeking refuge in the housing market of first-and second-tier cities. It can be seen that the situation faced by the first-and second-tier cities and the third-and fourth-tier cities is very different.
It is said that a while ago, Wuhan convened a meeting of developers to convey policies and discuss the situation. Developers have been screaming for release. After a hustle and bustle, the presiding officer impatiently dropped a sentence: If we make any more noise, well see Changsha as well. Suddenly, the venue was silent.
After the new policy of anti-speculation housing was issued in June this year, Changsha has been called the city with the most stringent real estate regulation in the country. There are all kinds of policies such as limited purchase, limited sale, limited price, limited enterprise, limited divorce.
As soon as the news of Heze came out, experts said that it was similar to the news that Beihai, Guangxi, cancelled its purchase restriction when the regulation was loosened in 2014. Later on, it was true that the signal gun of the last round of regulation and control was fired in the third and fourth-tier cities. Since then, it began to go into stock and loosen the bonds in an all-round way.
But can it be used as a signal to relax real estate regulation nationwide? Dont give it a second thought.
Economics Ke thinks that housing is not stir-frying is still the main tone set by the central government. These important rounds of meetings have not relaxed in discussing economic issues. In this key tone, there is also a policy called one city, one policy. As I said just now, the problems faced by the third-and fourth-tier cities and the second-tier cities are quite different. It is very difficult to control them in a one-size-fits-all manner, which also leaves room for adjustment to local conditions. Im afraid its more accurate to understand Hezes affairs at this level.
Source: Chivalrous Island Responsible Editor: Ji Xueying_NN6784