On the evening of December 18, a notice on the abolition of the housing restriction policy in Heze, Shandong Province, aroused widespread concern.
Public opinion overreacted to the regulation and control of Heze property market
This is called Heze City Notice on Promoting the Reform of Shantytowns and Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market which clearly stipulates that the restrictions on the transfer of newly purchased housing should be abolished. This restriction was introduced a year ago, when the document stipulated that the restriction on the transfer of newly purchased housing should be implemented in the main urban areas and the counties where the volume of housing transactions is high and the pressure of stabilizing house prices is high. That is to say, the newly purchased commercial housing and second-hand housing can be listed and traded at least two years after obtaining the property right certificate, and the restriction time for non-local residents to purchase and transfer should not be less than three years.
For this measure, which was interpreted by the media as the first shot in the regulation and control of the real estate market, the Housing and Construction Department of Shandong Province first expressed that the document of Heze was not reported, and has asked the Heze Housing and Construction Bureau to interpret the policy as soon as possible. Subsequently, the media reported that Shandong Housing and Construction Department responded that: regarding real estate regulation and control, Shandong Housing and Construction Department and the states regulation and control policies are the same, using one city, one city, according to the city policy control measures. Because the situation of local cities is different and the policies are not all-inclusive, the Provincial Department of Housing and Construction does not interfere with the specific policies of the local housing and construction departments.
If the response of Shandong Housing and Construction Department is true, it means that unless there is greater pressure from public opinion, the policy of lifting restrictions on sales in Heze will become a reality.
On the one hand, I think the reaction of public opinion is a little overdone. This is just a fine-tuning of the control policies of the non-hot four-and-five-tier cities, which is not representative. On the other hand, standing in the overall situation of Chinas economy and the current specific situation of the real estate market, some cities have fine-tuned the real estate control policies according to their own conditions by canceling the restrictions. Is it absolutely necessary and understandable to stabilize market expectations?
As we all know, this round of real estate regulation began in the 9.30 policy of 2016. Over the past two years, a series of regulatory measures have been introduced in various places, such as purchase restriction, sale restriction, loan restriction and departure restriction. These measures are unprecedented in their strength, coverage and severity.
Taking the restriction of sales as an example, according to incomplete statistics, nearly 90 cities in China have introduced restriction measures. Over the past two years, on the one hand, the high-level constantly strengthens the expectation of real estate regulation and control, and constantly emphasizes the setting of no speculation in housing. Especially at the Political Bureau meeting in July this year, it was rare to emphasize the unprecedented determination to solve the problem of the real estate market. On the other hand, while emphasizing control, we constantly emphasize on accelerating the construction of long-term mechanism of real estate.
_Source of Pictures: Visual China
The real estate market has said goodbye to the fever
From the perspective of the real estate market, after more than two years of regulation and control, by the first half of this year, the entire real estate market has become stable, and the policy objective of curbing investment speculation has basically been achieved. At the same time, the fundamentals of the real estate market are also changing quietly. With the stability of the market, the expectations of rising house prices are also changing. Especially since the second half of the year, the real estate market as a whole has significantly cooled down.
Firstly, according to the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities, from the second half of the year, the motive force of housing price rise has been basically exhausted. The housing prices of hot cities, including first-tier cities, have been adjusted to a certain extent, and the second-hand housing prices of first-tier cities, including northern cities, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, have declined at the same time.
Secondly, the land market has obviously cooled down. The land premium rate and the temperature of the land market are not the same as last year. In the first 11 months, the average premium rate of residential land in 300 cities was 7%, down 15 percentage points from the same period last year. The land market is regarded as the leading indicator of the real estate market. From the situation of the land market, the cooling of the real estate market has become a foregone conclusion.
Thirdly, from the perspective of investment in real estate development, sales and prosperity index, the real estate market has left the fever and returned to normal. The expectations of the whole real estate market have changed from bullish to bearish.
Finally, developers tend to be cautious about market judgment, some developers shout survive, and some developers begin to de-real estate. This means that the real estate market as a whole has undergone significant changes. At the end of 2017, I predict that the real estate market in 2018 will be very difficult. The fine-tuning of policies is a big probability, based on the basic judgment of the large real estate cycle. Now it seems that this judgment is absolutely correct.
As far as Chinas economy is concerned, the recently convened meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee set the target for Chinas economy in 2019. Faced with the complicated situation, the Central Committee stressed the need to enhance preferential awareness and reiterated the need to stabilize employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment and expectations.
Stability can be said to be the core of Chinas economic policy next year. Although the central government has not explicitly put forward the idea of stabilizing real estate, stabilizing the real estate market is also the proper meaning of stabilizing the economy. As the real estate market is obviously different from the past, it is necessary to adjust the policy appropriately, stabilize the real estate market and avoid problems in the real estate market.
But this does not mean encouraging the rise of housing prices and abandoning the basic concept of no speculation in housing. Restraining investment speculation is long-term, but adjusting the regulation policy according to the specific situation of the real estate market is more conducive to the development of the real estate market. If cities follow-up adjustments, there is no need to make a fuss.
Source: Author of New Beijing News: Ma Guangyuans Responsible Editor: Shi Jianlei_NBJ11331