The downward pressure of the economy continues, and consumption has been exhausted since this year.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 14, the total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2018 amounted to 3,526 billion yuan, an 8.1% nominal increase over the same period last year.
The main reasons for the decline in data for the month were the expansion of the decline in automobile products and the decline in the high growth rate of petroleum products. In November, automobile commodities per unit above the quota fell 10% year-on-year, an increase of 3.6 percentage points over the previous month; petroleum commodities increased by 8.5%, and the growth rate fell by 8.6 percentage points. These two types of commodities have reduced the total retail sales growth rate of social consumer goods by more than 0.7 percentage points.
Automobile sales account for more than a quarter of the total. Overdraft effect brought by preferential purchase tax policy, consumer expectations under the anticipated tariff reduction, and restrictions on purchase and travel are the main reasons for the decline in automobile consumption this year. However, from the perspective of 1000 peoples ownership level, Chinas automobile market still has great potential for development.
Since this year, the overall zero growth rate of the community has been almost unilaterally declining. Analyses show that structural problems such as income distribution and real estate Crowding-out are restricting the growth of consumption from the basic motive force. The downturn in consumption reflects the increasing downward pressure of macro-economy.
Consumption growth continued to decline
Since this year, apart from a rebound in a few months, the zero growth rate of the community has been almost downward.
On December 14, Dong Chao, director of the Institute of Circulation and Consumption of the Academy of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce, told 21st Century Economic Reporters that the reasons for this years weak consumption are on the one hand the increasing downward pressure of the current economy and the weak economic growth; on the other hand, the rising leverage level of Chinese residents, the rising pressure on housing loans, the slowing growth of disposable income and the continuing downturn in the capital market, which lead to expenditure. Affordability has declined.
Chinas Macroeconomic Report 2018-2019 issued recently by Renmin University of China points out that deep-seated structural problems such as income distribution and real estate Crowding-out are restricting the growth of consumption from the basic motive force.
The report points out that the growth rate of disposable income of residents begins to be lower than that of GDP, which will inevitably affect the growth of consumption. At the same time, the widening gap in income distribution will lead to a decrease in the proportion of income of residents with higher marginal propensity to consume, which will make the growth of consumption expenditure deviate from the growth of income and further aggravate the decline of consumption.
According to the report, the core support of consumption is not the high-income class, but the middle and lower income class. Over the past few years, the support of disposable consumption funds for the middle and lower income groups has weakened.
In addition, the report points out that the growth rate of household savings is beginning to be lower than that of loans. In 2018, the net savings balance (deposits minus loans) of households dropped by about 7% compared with the same period last year. In the past round of real estate boom, a large number of middle and lower income groups were held up by real estate, and the consumption base was severely weakened.
Mao Shengyong, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference held by the State New Office on December 14 that the decline in the zero growth rate of social services has attracted much attention. However, this indicator does not fully reflect the overall picture of consumption, as many services are not included.
Dong Chao also pointed out that the consumption structure of Chinese residents is undergoing significant changes. In the first three quarters of this year, the proportion of service consumption has reached 52.6%. At present, the rapid growth of service consumption in China has gradually become the main driving force of consumption growth.
In the past, when commodity consumption was dominant, the representative of the index of total social zero was stronger, but now the situation has changed. The growth rate of 8.1% in November was more about commodity consumption than service consumption. He said.
It is noteworthy that the large volume of Shuang11 transactions did not significantly boost the consumption data for the month. According to the statistics bureau, the transaction volume of major e-commerce platforms in China (including goods and services) on the day of Shuang11 exceeded 300 billion yuan, an increase of more than 30% year on year.
Mao Shengyong said that the pulling effect of Shuang11 has slowed down, mainly because the plate of the total social zero is getting bigger and bigger, and the festival effect will decrease accordingly.
On December 14, Zhao Ping, Director of International Trade Research Department of China Association for the Promotion of Trade, told the 21st Century Economic Report that Shuang11 itself will indeed bring about a concentrated release of consumption, but this is more reflected in the sales volume of the day, and there will often be a period of trough around it. As the annual Shuang11 will form a high point, the same-ratio growth rate of social zero will smooth the fluctuation of data. So Novembers data will not fluctuate significantly.
Negative growth of automobile communication consumption
On December 14, Ye Jingyi, a senior statistician in the Department of Foreign Trade and Economics of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the annual growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in November fell by 0.5 percentage points from that of last month, mainly due to the expansion of the decline in automotive goods and the decline in the high growth rate of petroleum goods.
In November, automobile commodities per unit above the quota fell 10% year-on-year, an increase of 3.6 percentage points over the previous month; petroleum commodities increased by 8.5%, and the growth rate fell by 8.6 percentage points. According to their estimates, these two types of commodities have reduced the total retail sales growth rate of social consumer goods by more than 0.7 percentage points.
In Zhao Pings view, the decline in automobile sales is the most important factor dragging down the November consumption data. Automobile sales account for more than 25% of the total social zero. This part of the negative growth of 10% directly led to the decline of the social zero growth rate.
According to the data of the China Auto Association, passenger car sales totaled 21.478.4 million from January to November 2018, an increase of - 2.77% compared with the same period last year. With December approaching half, it will be difficult to reverse the negative growth of overall vehicle sales in 2018 only by the final sprint. This means that after 28 years of rapid growth, Chinas automobile market will experience negative growth for the first time in 2018.
Zhao Ping said that the sales data of China Auto Association had been negative growth for four consecutive months, which is wholesale data. Considering the downstream inventory problem, automobile retail is facing greater pressure.
She pointed out that Chinas automobiles are facing increasingly stringent restrictions on purchasing and driving, which directly constrains the increase in new car sales, and the rise in parking fees and other costs has also led many urban residents to choose more bus travel.
The downturn in automobile sales is not unique to China. Due to the macroeconomic downturn, sales in Europe, America, Japan and other markets have declined. On December 14, Zhang Jinhua, Secretary-General of the China Automobile Engineering Society, said in an interview with the 21st Century Economic Report that the withdrawal of the preferential purchase tax policy did have some impact. The preferential tax policy in 2017 brought about the early release of some automobile consumption and overdraft of this years sales, which affected the automobile sales data in the first half of the year. The decline in automobile consumption in the second half of the year was partly due to consumption. Confidence is insufficient, on the other hand, due to the expectation of tariff reduction, which may lead to a decline in the price of many imported cars, and many consumers are therefore on the sidelines of purchasing cars.
Zhang Jinhua stressed that although Chinas automobile market may have a negative growth this year, it is not a trend decline, from the development stage, Chinas automobile market still has a lot of room for growth.
At present, Chinas car ownership of 1,000 people is only over 160, which has not yet reached the global average of 180-200. In fact, the United States has reached 900. Germany, Britain, Japan and other countries are also between 500-700. So there is still a lot of room for development in China. It is expected that China will exceed the global average in recent years. We expect to reach 300. At present, there are about 197 million cars in China, which means that Chinas car ownership will double to 400 million.
Zhao Ping said that the weak sales of communications commodities is also an important reason for this years decline in consumption growth. In previous years, the growth rate of communications equipment was generally double-digit, while in November the figure was -5.9%. The main reason is that the pace of global innovation has slowed down, new products are not good enough, and consumers are not willing to buy. In addition, the penetration rate of Chinas mobile Internet is tending after years of rapid development. Saturated and mature.
Forecast next year, she believes that Chinas consumption is still facing some downward pressure, but there will be no significant decline.
On the one hand, the overall economic situation is still not optimistic, and uncertainty in the international market has increased. These factors will affect consumer confidence and ability through employment and income. On the other hand, there is a certain rigidity in consumption. The main factors affecting consumption are long-term income and expectations of future income changes. At present, Chinas economy is still growing at a fairly low rate, and peoples income level will not decline, which will provide support for consumption. In the process, consumption is still escalating.
The November data show that the growth rate of some upgraded commodities has increased significantly. In the same month, household appliances and audio-visual equipment commodities of units above the quota increased by 12.5% year-on-year, 7.7 percentage points faster than last month. Gold, silver, jewelry, sports and entertainment goods, books, newspapers and magazines, cultural and office supplies commodities increased by 0.9, 5.3, 14.2 and 2.9 percentage points respectively compared with last month.
Source: Liable Editor of 21st Century Economic Report: Li Wan_B11284