At the end of 2018, with the traditional sales season of gold, nine silver and ten ten silver becoming a bubble, the future of the real estate market has cast a shadow.
On December 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November. In November, five new commercial housing cities declined, while 17 second-hand housing cities declined, all of which were adjusted in October. In October, the number was 4 and 14. Among them, the sale price of second-hand housing fell by 0.4%, which was 0.2 percentage points larger than last month. Prices of second-hand housing in four first-tier cities all fell, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling by 0.6%, 0.1%, 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
Zhang Dawei, Chief Real Estate Analyst of Central Plains, told the China Times that, in anticipation, the price reduction of second-hand housing will begin. In August, when the national property market reached its peak, gold, silver and silver ceased to exist, property prices showed signs of adjustment, and the inflection point of second-hand housing began to appear. It is anticipated that in the coming months, the downward trend of second-hand housing prices will continue to increase, and some new residential cities will gradually begin to adjust.
The adjustment of second-hand housing in hot cities is obvious
According to the statistics bureau, the number of cities where the prices of newly built commercial housing rose annually in November was 63, compared with 65 cities in October. The cities where the prices fell were Tianjin, Xiamen, Shenzhen, Wenzhou and Jinhua. From a ring-to-ring perspective, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in four first-tier cities rose slightly by 0.3%. Beijing and Shanghai rose 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, while Guangzhou remained flat and Shenzhen fell 0.2%. Hohhot, Dali and other central and western cities rose significantly, rising by 2.9% and 2.8%, respectively, and house prices in Guilin and Luoyang also rose by 2.3%.
Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that house prices continued to rise in November, but did not expand significantly. The year-on-year growth continued to expand, which is related to the relatively high ring-on-ring growth data in recent months. Although high-end project intensive push plate, but in the actual sales process there are still price-cutting promotions. Judging from the rising list of cities, Hohhots housing policy is relatively loose, Dali and Guilin are tourist cities, especially in winter, the livability of such cities is more obvious.
As for second-hand housing, the prices of second-hand housing in 17 hot cities have been lowered, with Xiamen and Beijing falling by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. Second-hand house prices in some of the hottest cities, such as Wuxi, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Tianjin and Guangzhou, have been downgraded annually.
Yan Yuejin said that from the second-hand housing price index ring-to-ring growth rate, the current 0.5%, compared with October remains unchanged. In contrast, second-hand housing reflects the market trend more objectively. At present, many landlords are eager to sell projects and will take the initiative to reduce prices. Pricing of first-hand housing is affected by more factors, such as the approval of the pre-sale certificate, so the price will be relatively strong.
The third and fourth tier cities began to cool down
However, it is noteworthy that although the third and fourth tier cities with the largest price increases this year are still rising, the growth rate has slowed down. In November, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 35 third-tier cities rose by 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively. The increase was 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points lower than last month.
Previously, because of the peak period brought about by the second and third-tier urban shelter reform policies, especially in the central and Western areas, sales growth rate far exceeded the average market growth, the third-tier cities became the focus area of the current round of house price rise.
Earlier, Zhang Ming, director of the International Investment Research Department of the World Economic and Political Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and chief economist of Ping An Securities, said at the seminar on the publication of the China Housing Development Report (2018-2019) and housing system reform held on December 11 that in the past two years, residents in the third and fourth tiers have been buying houses at a very fast speed with leverage. However, due to the net outflow of population, inventory will be depleted in the future. The property market in the third and fourth tier cities may usher in a price inflection point.
Yan Yuejin also pointed out that the current market transactions in third-tier cities began to cool down, which will naturally lead to a narrowing of house price increases. In addition, this also shows that in the past wave of three-tier cities, house prices have risen, or there is a possibility of overdraft, so the current rise of house prices in these cities has narrowed, reflecting the trend of market returning to rationality. Moreover, the recent cooling of the national market will also have a certain impact on the third and fourth-tier cities.
Source: Responsible Editor of the China Times: Shi Jianlei_NBJ11331