DPRK summit Advisor: on unification of the Peninsula or the era of peace

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 DPRK summit Advisor: on unification of the Peninsula or the era of peace


On the morning of April 27th, Kim Jeong-eun, the supreme leader of the DPRK, will meet with the South Korean President on the side of the South Korean side, which will also be the first time the supreme leader of the DPRK embarked on the Korean land for a new era or will be opened on the Korean Peninsula. Back in time, last April, the Korean Peninsula was still enveloped in the dark clouds of the April crisis. From January this year, with Kim Jeong-euns new years congratulations on the hope of participating in the Winter Olympics in Pingchang, the two Koreas began a series of frequent interactions with the Winter Olympic Games as a starting point, and the Korean Peninsula came to a warm spring. What is the logic behind North Koreas initiative to ease North South relations? What will be the outcome of the summit? What consensus will the two sides reach on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula? Where will the future Korean Peninsula go? On the occasion of the summit of the Korean and Korean leaders, in the face of the changing situation on the Korean Peninsula, www.thepaper.cn was interviewed by Han Guocheng, the professor of political and foreign science at the University of mean Pavilion, and Li Xiyu, the director of the Institute of Chinese research. Professor Li Xiyu has not only served as a consultant to the Secretariat and unification Department of the Chong Wa Dae, but also a member of the summit Advisory Committee. As a scholar who has studied China for 30 years, he is also known as the China hand in Korea. Li Xiyu believes that North Koreas initiative to ease North South relations is strategic rather than tactical. In his view, although there are uncertainties in the follow-up, the possibility of a successful North Korean summit is more likely due to the full communication between North and South Korea. This is not only because the Korean and Korean, even the other parties have achieved consensus on the denuclearization of the peninsula, but also because a series of measures adopted by the DPRK are not the tactical changes taken because of the international situation, but also the strategic choice of the DPRK. Therefore, the Korean and Korean parties may sign the Korean Peninsula armistice or the declaration of peace, but because of the signing of the armistice agreement, the Korean summit talks may not immediately terminate the state of the Korean Peninsula. According to Li Xiyu analysis, the current understanding of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula refers to the concept of North Koreas complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization. However, there are still some differences in the specific path of denuclearization. He pointed out that, according to the current situation, the future Korean Peninsula, rather than the era of peaceful reunification, is better than the era of peaceful coexistence. For the current North Korea, reunification is not the goal of Kim Jeong-eun, and the goal of Wen Yins government is to achieve peaceful coexistence. If the Korean Peninsula policy remains unchanged, the situation on the Korean Peninsula will continue to improve. The end of the war on the peninsula is still early Surging news: the North Korean summit meeting is about to begin, when the top leader of the DPRK will set foot on the Korean territory for the first time, which is a historic meeting. How did the two Koreas reach this arrangement at the beginning? Li Xiyu: it should be said that this arrangement may be first proposed by the Korean government. After the two sides held consultations, the DPRK agreed to this arrangement. Because the first and second inter Korean summit meetings were held in North Korea, and if the third is still in North Korea, there will be an imbalance. In addition, Kim Jeong-eun, the top leader of the DPRK, has visited Beijing, and it is also a very meaningful thing for Kim Jeong-eun to have a Korean summit in Panmunjom, which is also a chance for the DPRK to show itself to the international community. In addition, South Korea also has other considerations. After the final consultation, the two sides jointly reached such an arrangement. Surging news: how do you expect the outcome of the DPRK summit in April 27th? Will the war on the Korean Peninsula end on the day of the meeting? The Korean and Korean meeting will sign a declaration of armistice and a declaration of peace. The declaration may not need to be signed by China, but the treaty will certainly require the participation of the United States and China. Because more of the declaration is a historic symbol, it is easier to achieve, but the treaty involves specific arrangements, so it will be difficult to sign. Through this north south talks, there may be a truce declaration between the north and the south, and the possibility of reducing the war, but it may be still earlier to end the war at a distance, and it may be more important to maintain the above state in the future. There is still a difference in the process of denuclearization Surging news: what do you mean by uncertainty? Is there any difference between the DPRK and ROK meetings and the US DPRK talks on how to achieve denuclearization? Li Xiyu: there are differences between the two meetings, or rather the uncertainty. At present, the understanding of the denuclearization of the peninsula is consistent with each other, but the views of the parties are not exactly the same on the specific path to achieve this goal. The concept of denuclearization in North Korea, South Korea and the United States is completely, verifiable, irreversible and denuclearization. But in the way of denuclearization, such as how the speed of denuclearization is, how to guarantee the security needs of the DPRK, there are differences in methodology between the parties, and the understanding is not entirely consistent. South Korea hopes to be denuclearization in a phased way by reducing the nuclear power of the North Korea, and North Korea hopes to further expand consultations in the case of acknowledging its nuclear power and denuclearization in a phased way. Now North Korea has made it clear that its nuclear power will be reduced, but at this stage its goal is not to be completely denuclearization, but to start by reducing its nuclear power first. It is a pre emptive step, and then North Korea will consider a thorough denuclearization through consultations, which requires a very long period of time. A spanu3002 But the DPRK is also aware that if the DPRK continues to denuclearization under the premise of nuclear weapons, its negotiations with South Korea will not go too far. The United States is also worried that such a situation will happen, but I think that over time, this concern will gradually ease. There are three topics for the DPRK summit, including the complete denuclearization of the peninsula, the establishment of a lasting peace mechanism and the promotion of North South exchanges and cooperation. South Korea hopes to focus on the first issue and achieve major results in this regard. As for the north and South exchanges and cooperation, North Korea has not actively pushed it into the main issue, because the North Korea, which is being sanctioned, also takes into account that the most important thing is to change the surrounding international environment. Therefore, the DPRK summit meeting is expected to achieve some important results on the denuclearization of the peninsula. In addition, it needs to be noted that the current series of actions that the DPRK is taking is not a tactical change, but a strategic choice. The DPRK does not take action this year in order to fight for time and avoid sanctions. The Korean conservatives will be a disturbing factor Surging news: what is the current attitude of the Korean progressive and conservative parties to the summit between the DPRK and the ROK? Li Xiyu: in fact, there is a conservative view in the public opinion circle in Korea. Their understanding of Koreas willingness to denuclearization is that DPRK hopes to achieve a permanent peace system on the Peninsula through denuclearization, and then the American Army retreats in Korea, and finally the unification is realized by the DPRK, which is Han Guobaos conservative idea. And in the United States, this idea is also widely circulated. But the reality is that although North Korea can destroy South Korea by force, it is beyond common sense to reunite in this way. So the Korean Conservatives think that North Korea is now tactically unifying through tactical means, and they also think its a more romantic idea to talk to DPRK. Therefore, Wen Yin president is more cautious about the North South Summit. He also has a similar position with the international community in easing the economy and sanctions. The presidents present position is that it is difficult to predict the others ideas if the other sides hands are tied, but if a hand is held, it may be more aware of the others ideas, to ease the tension on the Korean Peninsula, and to lay the foundation for a future peace system. Surging news: which parties will participate in the process of denuclearization in the future? What is the most uncertain factor that interferes with the denuclearization of the peninsula? Li Xiyu: in the future, China, the United States, the DPRK and South Korea will become the four parties involved in the denuclearization negotiations. In my view, the most uncertain factor that interferes with the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is the difference between Korean progressive and conservative views on the North South Summit. At present, South Korea has opposite views on improving relations between the north and the south. In the past, the Korean conservatives design of the Korean version of the denuclearization was carried out under the framework of the Korea - US alliance and realized the peace on the Korean Peninsula on the basis of the Korea - US alliance. Now the government hopes to adjust the Korea - US alliance and achieve peace on the peninsula, but the United States will not agree. This is a delicate issue. It is now in a phase of transformation. So the Korean government is now emphasizing peace and less emphasis on unity. If we look at the current situation, the future Korean Peninsula is not the era of peaceful reunification, but rather the era of peaceful coexistence. For the current North Korea, reunification is not the goal of Kim Jeong-eun, and the goal of Wen Yins government is to achieve peaceful coexistence. Therefore, Wen stressed the support rate very much. If the government can win the local election in June this year, the possibility of extending the term in Yin will be greater, and a more stable north and South policy is also available. Surging news: what is Koreas first and last step in the process of denuclearization? Will the DPRK request the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea? Li Xiyu: This is a sensitive issue between North Korea and South Korea. At present, North Korea has no demands on the US troops. In the process of promoting the peace system, the DPRK may make some requests to the US troops in Korea, but the purpose of the DPRK is not to let the American troops withdraw from the South Korea, which is only one of the steps to change and convert the nature of the US troops in Korea, and the US troops stationed in Korea may still stay in the process for some time. On the one hand, the DPRK accepted the particularity of the Korean and American alliance. It does not think that the US troops stationed in Korea are disadvantageous to the DPRK. In the long run, the US and the United States and the South Korean alliance are one of the two ways to the DPRK. Therefore, it is not the hottest issue between the north and South Korea at present, but it may become a topic in the future. In the future, the two Koreas will also maintain a subtle difference in the position. Different ideas of the highest leaders of the three dynasties in the DPRK Surging news: North Korea has taken a series of actions this year to improve the surrounding situation. Why do you have a relatively positive attitude towards the strategic transformation of the DPRK? Does North Korea choose to ease the situation in the north and south, is it the result of its own strategic adjustment, or is it a move made out of the development of the international situation? In fact, at present, the DPRK and ROK are heading for talks. North Korea has the passive response to the development of the international situation. Specifically, North Korea emphasized political and ideological power in the Kim Il-Sung era, Kim Jong-il emphasized military power, and Kim Jeong-eun emphasized economic power, so Kim Jeong-eun had put forward and entered the line, now the route was over, and the North Korea turned to economic construction, and it would become a economic power to become Kim Jeong-eun. The long-term goal is a historic strategic change. The South Korean government fully understands that the United States can fully understand such changes in North Korea. North Korea also knows that North Korea will face greater pressure if it continues to seek nuclear weapons. On the choice of time, is North Korea developing the economy from now on, or will it further develop the economy? In this regard, Kim Jeong-eun clearly knows that it is more advantageous to start developing the economy now, so he is now actively choosing to ease the situation on the peninsula. What did the DPRK give to Trumps mid-term election? Surging news: do you think international or domestic factors are more important for North Korea to adopt a series of actions this year? Li Xiyu: it should be said that all factors jointly contributed to the current situation. If we have to choose, domestic factors are the main factors. The DPRK has declared to be a strategic country and a strategic country, and the DPRK has to choose its own way of life, so now the DPRK has made a series of actions. Moreover, the sanctions have caused great pressure on the DPRK. In addition, the entry of the letter to the DPRK in the Yin government is also an important factor for Kim Jeong-euns action. Together with the American president Trumps opposition to Obama, Obama carried out a strategic patience policy on the Korean Peninsula, and Trump had his own unique thinking after going to power to solve the problem that Obama had not solved. In this regard, the DPRK also took into account the characteristics of Trumps ruling. It is worth mentioning that in September 9th this year, the DPRK will be 70th anniversary, and the DPRK hopes to become a normal country at that time, which is also the time for the mid-term elections in the United States, and the DPRK also wants to give Trump a gift. So if North Korea wants to achieve the goal of a normal country in 70th anniversary, Kim Jeong-eun therefore chooses to change his strategy. Surging news: in the third Plenary Session of the 7th CPC Central Committee, North Korea announced the cessation of the nuclear test in the third Plenary Session of the 7th CPC Central Committee, turning to economic construction, and how do you judge the future economic opening of the DPRK? Li Xiyu: it is difficult for North Korea to have complete market opening, but it can not completely block the trend of marketization. So the DPRK will do something on the scale and speed of the market, that is, the only choice that DPRK can make in the market is to manage the market effectively in the case of the stability of the system, but the government will not control and suppress the market as before. For China, because of the large scale and large volume of Chinas economy, the reform and opening up is the step of the opening and opening of the line. The national volume of the DPRK is relatively small and will not be open to the point and line. It may choose a field to carry out a package of policies. The source of this article: surging news editor: Zhang Xianchao _NN9310 Li Xiyu: it is difficult for North Korea to have complete market opening, but it can not completely block the trend of marketization. So the DPRK will do something on the scale and speed of the market, that is, the only choice that DPRK can make in the market is to manage the market effectively in the case of the stability of the system, but the government will not control and suppress the market as before. For China, because of the large scale and large volume of Chinas economy, the reform and opening up is the step of the opening and opening of the line. The national volume of the DPRK is relatively small and will not be open to the point and line. It may choose a field to carry out a package of policies.